EUR GU 11 Sep

Narrow ranges yesterday with W pivots and support /resistance areas containing the moves.

After the strong move up there was little reaction down so I'm viewing this as pause in move up and retaining bias up to 1.3000 area (W pivot, Feb-Apr lows). There is the potential for sells on good candles should the upper resistance level hold again.

The German court case due Wed on the legalities of Euro bail outs obviously has the potential to make the market pause.

COT by Ralph Shell

I enjoyed Ralph's article Will Poor US Employment Numbers Launch More QE? See the link on the right and go to articles.

GU EUR 10 Sep

EUR - The weak US jobs number took the EUR higher Fri. The Asian session pullback was minimal. 1hr higher high higher low flow suggests more upside.

GU - Basically the same looking charts as EUR, the only difference we had the pullback to the D pivot on Fri, see charts below.

GU move back to D pivot on NFP day

As mentioned this morning GU moved up and then fell to D pivot.

GU EUR 7 Sep

EUR and GU did fall ( sell the fact) but moved up again very quickly. The W pivots and support/resistance levels continue to dominate.

ON NFP day we'll probably sit out, GU is above its D pivot and often makes its way to it before NFP is announced.

EUR GU

See the link to COT reports by Ralph Shell and go to articles for his piece yesterday, ECB Rumors of Bond Buying Sends the Euro Higher. If "buy the rumour sell the fact" plays out the EUR should fall when the announcement is made.

Yesterday the bounces from support/resistance levels continued. Whilst the close of the D would give up bias today anything can happen.

EUR GU 5 Sep

The upper resistance levels held yesterday and an engulfing negative close on EUR 1hr was a signal to sell.

GU - D negative close from the reject of upper resistance level. Neither the 4hr or 1hr are what I would describe as clean moves. Bias would be down today but in light of recent price action anything can happen.

EUR - D engulfing negative close. The support level from the W pivot failed. Bias to more downside. There is a support level around 1.2500/2480. If the big boys are selling off their EUR short positions as per the COT report then you'd expect rallies after dips. Decent two way trade at least. For short term trading will follow 1hr lower high lower low flow until this turns around. The size of the big boys short EUR position could easily result in further moves down, they will need to be offloaded.