Recap 21 Jan, EUR GU EJ 22 Jan

Recap 21 Jan

The US holidays and poor EUR price action continued yesterday with no moves. GU did give a trade down in line with bias when 1hr engulfing closed negative and a little later 4hr lower high closed negative. EJ gave a couple of scalp sells in line with short term sell bias.

22 Jan

EUR - D close gives no insight and a 50 pip bounce up late Asian session needs to hold. The 4hr is still in effect going sideways. Will be looking for clarity on flow for direction and if this is not clearer at London open perhaps US open.

GU - Another D doji in the area of the Nov lows. In this run down doji's have been followed by a strong down day but we now have that support level. We are now in a late Asian session push up, 4hr still on lower high but showing positive divergence to price. No bias as there are arguments for buy or sell, good 1hr candles could take this either way.

EJ - D negative divergence, RSI crossed below signal line, but still above 50 level. 4hr negative divergence and a lower high following divergence is normally a decent set up. Bias down but there is always the likelihood the BOJ will take some action.

Recap 18 Jan, EUR GU EJ 21 Jan

Recap 18 Jan

EUR bias was up with potential to go lower from the highs (1.3400 area). It fell with an evening star pattern on 15 min.

GU was no bias could have gone either way. Again the move above the immediate range just before London open was rejected with a doji and also completed an evening star pattern. there was then a weak pre US open push up reverting to trend after US news.

EJ did not follow bias up.

21 Jan

EUR - A negative close day that did not challenge last weeks lows. 4hr going sideways within the 1.3400-1.3250 range. Direction at this time is unclear.

GU - All time frames below RSI 50 level with some divergence on 1hr. Bias down but we have the Nov support area 1.5825 approaching. 4hr and 1hr flows down.

EJ - D doji with divergence, 4hr divergence. 4hr and 1hr RSI crossed below their signal lines so short term sell bias, D has not as yet agreed.

Recap 17 Jan EUR EJ GU 18 Jan

Recap 17 Jan

EUR - No bias for the day pending break of immediate range. It broke up.

GU - Bias was down, had a push up at London open into the area of 4-15 Jan lows/W S1, and a fall from there.

EJ - Bias was down but we had D hammer. In addition a 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. There have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges.That happened fairly early. After my post yesterday a 1hr morning star pattern unfolded and 4hr flow halted.

18 Jan

EUR - Engulfing D close at the resistance level just below 1.3400. 1hr flow higher high higher low. This D higher low close is completely different to the reaction from this level at the beginning of April '12. Bias up with the potential to go lower from the highs.

GU - D closed a doji perhaps showing divergence (price action yet to confirm) stopping at the previously identified support level 1.5950. If the 1hr does not fall we will have a higher low. No bias can go either way.

EJ - D engulfing close (close higher than the previous 2 candle closes). Looks like BOJ not letting their hard work go to waste. Next target 123.00. Bias up.

Recap 16 Jan, EUR GU EJ 17 Jan

Recap 16 Jan

The down bias was more pronounced on GU. Whilst there were good selling trades on EUR (and EJ) the support above 1.3250 gave buy opportunites for counter trend trades from a proven support level.

17 Jan

EUR - D close a hammer and we have not closed below our lwma or had RSI cross. No bias, until we break the immediate range it seems that scalp buys and sells from 1hr/15 min candles near the most recent price extremes may be effective.

GU - D negative close, 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D close a hammer. 4hr flow on lower high lower low. A 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. Bias down. As per EUR recently there have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges. Targets 116.45 yesterdays low, then perhaps the 116.00 support level.

Recap 15 Jan, EUR GY EJ 16 Jan

Recap 15 Jan

EUR - Poor price action, the 4hr did flip over and the bias down did play out but the main move lower was late in US session.

GU -  Very choppy, small range with the lower resistance level holding.

EJ - A major move down started with an engulfing close 4hr. In the bigger picture on D this can still be dip in uptrend. Several hours of 1hr candles up getting taken out with 1hr move down.

16 Jan

EUR - D negative close forming an evening star pattern in the area of the Dec highs, RSI not crossed lower, not below lwma as yet. D divergence has played out. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level and 1hr flow on lower high lower low. In view of D evening star pattern and 1hr flow bias down but we can react to the support level 1.3250/90.

GU - D doji, RSI flat below 50 level. 4hr and 1hr sideways moves but we are below/on the RSI 50 level and below ma's. That suggests bias down but would like to see solid lower closes for a trade.

EJ - D solid negative engulfing close, the range of the previous 2 days. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level. Perhaps the JPY authorities have taken their foot off the weak yen for the moment. I struggle to think we'll have a repeat of yesterday however bias now down until 1hr flow turns up. Can the next support level 115.50/116.00 be reached?  

Recap 14 Jan, EUR GU EJ 15 Jan

Recap 14 Jan

The upper resistance levels held. Of the set ups for counter trend I preferred the 1hr engulfing close on GU. We missed it, no problem today is another opportunity.

15 Jan

EUR - No real progress made higher and D closed a doji. 4hr shows signs of flipping over should the current candle closes negative. That may signal a double top, scalp sell (as not yet confirmed by the D). Only time will tell if this is a pause in uptrend or start of a turn. The Mar '12 highs are a major resistance level. We had support yesterday 1.3335.

GU - D negative close with a decent lower wick. At present we are bouncing between W pivots and support/resistance levels. 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Support at 1.6000.

EJ - D closed on the resistance level and dropped 50 pips in Asian session. It appears the 4hr divergence is now playing out. We moved aggressively away from our D lwma due to the jump on 10th, a pause up is expected. Viewing this as a dip in uptrend, bias up. 

Recap 11 Jan, EUR GU EJ 14 Jan

Recap 11 Jan

EUR and EJ - Bias up played out.

GU - Price did react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level. A lower high close after divergence. Then became very volatile between 1.6090 and 1.6175.

14 Jan

EUR - D positive close, 4hr and 1hr flow higher high higher low. We are in the area of 26 Mar-3 Apr highs. D is showing divergence, price not showing signs of stopping yet. Bias up next target the Feb highs 1.3450-90.

GU - D double top high lower close. 4hr and 1hr charts not as clean as EUR. We are on or above RSI 50 levels, above the ma's and Asian session went up with EUR so bias up.


EJ - We are at a resistance level but bias up. The next resistance level I see is the Apr '11 high 123.00.