EUR GU EJ 4 Mar

4 Mar

EUR - The attempt below the Feb-Apr '12, Jan '13 lows failed for now. D closed a hammer, still below the 8lwma and below RSI 50 level, divergence showing. 4hr showing divergence, still on lower high lower low but a positive close here would flip that to a higher low. 1hr can go either way. It remains to be seen whether the bounce around London close was due to the US sequester discussions or start of a move up. We are at a key support level so can move up from there, until this is confirmed by price action bias down.

GU - D negative lower high 3 bar reversal close, showing signs of divergence. 4hr flow still lower high lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D positive close, higher low 3 bar reversal. 4hr flow higher high higher low. We have a base today at the D pivot 121.50 and if that holds bias up. failure to hold would give a 1hr lower high and flip short term bias down.

Avoid weak pre/early US session counter trend candles

EUR 1 Mar

We would avoid weak 1hr pre/early US session counter trend candles and look for London session trend to continue.

Lower high following divergence, higher low following divergence

EUR 1 Mar

Probably not that often that you see sell divergence followed by a lower high and buy divergence followed by a higher low in the same day.

London open move higher does not follow through. 1hr big upper wick on the doji. 15 min divergence, lower high for move back into trend.

At London close time slot we have 2 x 1hr hammers/dojis. 15 min higher low following divergence at W S2.

Whilst its a great tool to give advance warning of a potential move, you never know when divergence will play out. In the higher low/lower high following divergence price action is giving confirmation of the divergence to validate the trade.

4hr chart and W pivots.

Showing again to highlight the importance of the W pivots and support/resistance levels.

Recap 1 Mar

EUR - View was: D negative close as 3 bar reversal, the previous morning star pattern did not play out, the upper resistance level 1.3166 held. 1hr flow now lower high lower low. Bias down. 1hr long legged doji set up move down in line with bias.

GU - View was: D closed a narrow range shooting star. No bias.

EJ - View was: D closed also a very narrow range. 4hr and 1hr look sideways no bias.

1 Mar EUR GU EJ

EUR - D negative close as 3 bar reversal, the previous morning star pattern did not play out, the upper resistance level 1.3166 held. 1hr flow now lower high lower low. Bias down.

GU - D closed a narrow range shooting star. No bias.

EJ - D closed also a very narrow range. 4hr and 1hr look sideways no bias.

It appears the fiscal cliff that was pushed back until today has been holding the markets back somewhat.

Recap 28 Feb

EUR - View was: D closed positive for a morning star 3 bar reversal pattern. 4hr had a higher close yesterday following divergence. Price stalled at previous support/resistance level/W M2 1.3166. Bias up with potential to move lower from 1.3166. We did move lower from 1.3166.

GU - View was: Similar picture to EUR. GU was a bit of a mess only had a D range of 70 pips.

EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR. A mess, small range, little follow through.