EUR GU EJ 25 Mar

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.

Recap 22 Mar

EUR - Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.
Result: Bounce up from support/W M1 combination.
 
GU - Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.
Result: Bias up played out.
 
EJ - I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.
Result: Bounce up from the lows/W S3 combination.

 

4hr charts with W pivots

Support and resistance levels and W pivots, their importance yet again very clear.

EUR GU EJ 22 Mar

EUR - D negative close back into trend RSI below 50 level, daily lower high lower low flow intact, price stopped at support level. 4 hr strong rejection of the W S1 level 1.2954 with upper wicks. W M1 provided support during the day at 1.2894. Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.

GU - D positive close at the top of the recent range also recent resistance level 1.5160, RSI above 50 level/ma,  D higher low formed. 4 hr move up stalled at the resistance level from late Feb/early March 1.5180-1.5200 with large upper wicks. RSI flat but above 50 level. 1 hr higher flow intact but move up appears to be weakening. Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.

EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma.
4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down  forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.

Recap 21 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.
A lower fall on 1hr going into London open, after that chopped around in a small range.

GU - View was: D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.
A higher low on 1hr going into London open might have been difficult to trade with the upper wicks.

EJ - View was: D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.
The 1 day up 1 day down continued. 4hr evening star pattern at W M2, 1hr lower high into London open signaled the fall.

Ralph Shell article

See the link COT reports by Ralph Shell, go to articles, browse articles for Endless Troubles in Eurozone - Now Cyprus. Where he discusses the problem and his EUR sell area.

EUR GU EJ 21 Mar

EUR - D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. Ralph Shell has posted an article (will post details shortly) and he is looking at the weekend gap to get closed with a move to 1.3050. Anyway D RSI has crossed but below 50 level, we could not break the D 8lwma. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.

GU - D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.

EJ - D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.