4hr W pivots

As usual for pivots and support resistance levels, 2-4 moves in a week.

EUR GU EJ 5 April

No point in doing a recap for yesterday as the moves up were all related to news, interest rates/central bank announcements.

NFP today. Add to that D over sized candles that often do not follow through immediately, lots of reasons to be careful this morning.

EUR - D engulfing close should follow through higher. If this is a change in the market the big boys will want to move the market lower to offload some of their short positions, so a D over sized candle could be followed by a one or two indecisive candles. Only time will tell if this is a true turn. Would not be surprised then to see a retrace lower. No bias.

GU - Same as EUR.

EJ - 550 pip D candle begging for a retrace. No bias.

EUR GU EJ 4 Apr

Interest rate announcements today in UK and EUR, tomorrow NFP.

EUR - D closed positive but we could not break above the W pivot/resistance level. 4hr RSI crosses have worked as trades even if the moves have not been significant. Asian session could not take us back up to yesterdays high. No bias we could move lower from the rejection of the W pivot (see 4hr upper wick) or continue up, will need to see good 1hr candles.

GU - D closed a doji, 4hr and 1hr seem to be swinging back down. Below 50 RSI level on all time frames so appears to be swinging back lower.

EJ - No bias D closed a small doji and there is a clear base at 119. Interest rate decision came out and we just spiked 50 pips, we'll need to see the follow through as to whether this move up fails or not.

Recap 3 Apr

EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower.
Result: 1 Oct low held moved up after 2 x 1hr hammers.

GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.
Result: Down bias did not play out, moved up.

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity.
Result: Some decent moves but range bound.

 

EUR GU EJ 3 Apr

EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower.

GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity.

 

Recap 2 Apr - GU lower high following divergence

EUR - We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell.
Result: Lower high after divergence played out with a move lower. Lots of lower wicks made entry difficult.

GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today.
Result: Lower high after divergence, move played out with clean candles (no lower wicks).

EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down.
Down bias did not play out, there was lots of warnings with lower wicks on 4hr and 1hr.

 

EUR GU EJ 2 Apr

EUR - D closed positive and we have crossed the 8lwma and RSI its signal line. 4hr made a higher low yesterday and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell.

GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today.

EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down.