20Aug 2013

EUR - D closed another doji with the upper resistance level 1.3380 holding. We are above D and 4hr RSI 50 level and above the moving averages so bias should be up but this can go either way. There should be better opportunities elsewhere. No bias.

GU - D closed positive with the upper resistance level holding, still on higher high higher low. 4hr negative divergence. Bias should be up for same reasons as EUR but this can go either way. No bias.

EJ - D closed a shooting star, the move above the recent range strongly rejected. No bias.

EA - D positive close, engulfing candle. Asian session moved up strongly this morning. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative, engulfing candle. Asian session has pushed lower to the area of the lows 3-15 July. Bias down.

19 Aug 2013

EUR - D closed a negative doji rejecting the upper resistance level, potentially forming right shoulder on a head and shoulders pattern, still above the 8lwma and RSI 50 level. 4hr on higher high higher low. The W pivot is just above the 1.3300 support level and we'll need to see the reaction there.

GU - D closed with a very small range, Thurs large candle not following through. 4hr showing negative divergence. Whilst we could fall bias remains up.

EJ - Sideways for almost the whole week in the 129.50 - 130.50 range. No bias.

EA - D closed negative at the lows of recent range, which we are testing at the moment. We can bounce up from support but bias down.

AUD - D closed positive at the highs of recent range, which we are testing at the moment. We can move down from resistance but bias up.

16 Apr 2013

We typically do not trade on a Friday morning experiencing a fair amount of chop.

EUR - US news resulted in a significant move up and an engulfing D close. There is no way of knowing when news follows through or retraces. The 4hr chart is zoomed out a little to see some of the recent support/resistance levels.

GU - D closed positive on the back of the news push. 4hr higher high higher low remains in tact. The next D resistance level higher is the June highs in the area 1.5730.

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr shows the chop between W pivots/support and resistance levels. No bias. 

EA - D closed positive. 4hr broke the lower high lower low flow, retracing 100 pips lower in Asian session. No bias.

AUD - D closed a doji. 4hr not showing a flow that I can see. No bias.

15 Aug 2013

15 Aug 2013

EUR - The move lower yesterday failed and the support level at W S1 1.3248 held, the D closed a doji.. A move higher in Asian session failed to go above 1.3300 which is also a key level. Can go either way, no bias.

GU - D closed positive with a large upper wick, RSI above 50 level. 4hr on a higher low RSI above 50 level. Suggests bias up. We have last weeks high in the region of the proven resistance area from the Apr/May '13 highs and W M3. If trend and support and resistance are the 2 most important concepts in trading then we are in uptrend bumping up against a resistance level. If buying I'd be looking to get some space between entry and resistance area and get stop to break even as soon as possible. No bias. 

EJ -  D closed a doji and still on a lower high, hasn't crossed its upper trend line so its possible a rally in down trend. 4hr negative divergence, RSI crossed below signal line. We are possibly at a support/resistance area see 29-31 July and 6-9 Aug. No bias could go either way.

EA - D closed a doji, RSI below 50. 4hr looks like it has returned to lower high lower low. Bias down.

AUD - D closed a doji, RSI above 50. 4hr higher low. Bias up.

14 Aug 2013

EUR - D closed negative, 4hr lower high lower low. We have a support level at W S1 1.3248. Other than a reaction up from there bias down.

GU - D closed a shooting star. It looks like a big news spike and if not a very low range day. Don't know if its quiet ahead of the MPC interest rate vote this morning. Bias would be down but with the news can go either way.

EJ -  D closed positive in the resistance area 130.50. D is still on a lower high and hasn't crossed its upper trend line so its possible a rally in down trend. 4hr on higher high higher low. Bias up but a 4hr negative close here below 130.00 might signal move down.

EA - D small range shooting star reflected in the 4hr sideways move. Each 4hr candle of the last 7 is making marginally higher lows I seem to recall from somewhere that if we go up could be start of big move. I suppose the key word there is IF. I suspect up but can go either way no bias.

AUD - D closed negative with a lower wick. 4hr shows the move down but not that convincing. 1hr had lots of lower wicks yesterday until the US open move lower. Bias down.

  

13 Aug 2013

EUR - D closed a large body doji, below 8lwma and RSI crossed signal line lower but still above 50 level. 4hr is at a key level potentially on a lower high and a higher low if bounce off W M2 1.3286 confirms. The move lower could be a 15/85 trade. 1hr shows the higher low in Asian session. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed negative for the 2nd day but still cannot close below the 8lwma. This is because of the over sized candle on 7 Aug, in simple terms 1 good day up then 2 days down cannot cause cross lower. Move down looks very weak. 4hr on open candle looks like it wants to reverse but 1hr still on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow reverses up, this could happen in area of W pivot 1.5426.

EJ - D closed positive with positive divergence. 4hr could not follow through lower yesterday giving a higher low 3 bar reversal positive close off W M2 128.27. Moved up during Asian session and now back in the support/resistance area 129.50 that started the move lower on 9 Aug. No bias can go either way.

EURAUD - D closed positive well below 8lwma/RSI cross. 4hr made a higher low. 1hr about to close on a lower high and close to reversing flow down. No bias can go either way. It appears the positive close may just be rally in down trend.

AUD - D closed negative but could not cause 8lwma cross, 4hr the opposite closing positive but could not cause cross. No bias can go either way.

12 Aug 2013

EUR - D closed negative reacting to the June high, RSI showing divergence and crossed below its signal line. The 1hr did not want to go higher for 4 hrs then gave a 3 bar reversal negative close going into the US open. We have W pivot at 1.3323 and a support/resistance level at 1.3300. Only time will tell if this is dip in uptrend or start of move down. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed an inside candle rejecting the identified resistance level. 4hr RSI crossed lower after divergence. We pulled back to an area 1.5490 that gave support in June-Aug 2012. I suspect down but no bias can go either way.

EJ - D a lower high negative close. 4hr on lower high lower low but showing positive divergence. For now we have stopped at the 10 July low with our next identified support level about 100 pips lower. Bias down.

EURAUD - D closed an over sized candle at the 12 July high. Often these over sized candles do not follow through immediately. A bounce up would not be unexpected but bias down.

AUD - D closed positive. 4hr shows a series of 'weak' negative closes that could not close below the 8lwma. After several days straight up a pause/retrace is due but bias remains up.