Sunday, January 12, 2014
4hr charts W pivots
As usual the 4hr charts attached to show the importance of the W pivots, support and resistance levels and the number of moves that can be expected in a week.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
4hr charts W pivots
Showing as usual to highlight the importance of the W pivots, support and resistance levels and the typically number of trades that can be expected in a week 2-5.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Trend v support and resistance
You will never know which will win the day, trend or support and resistance.
If you were to buy here around 1.4960 fine but just be fully aware of what you are up against:
If you were to buy here around 1.4960 fine but just be fully aware of what you are up against:
- Yesterday we failed to go higher closing as a hanging man,
- Its Friday pm and there's more than a few traders that avoid Fridays all together,
- 1.4960 is in and around yesterdays high,
- The run up is now 950 pips,
- We are in a major resistance area from August.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Trading 101
Trend
Have a higher time frame definition of trend, whatever works for you. It could be MACD cross, a moving average cross, price above or below a moving average, a candle pattern etc etc etc.
Have a look at this euraud D chart. I look for the 3-7 day turns in the market that result in a move above or below the 8lwma or RSI cross. That's my general trend definition.
Taking it one step further. The x's mark weak candles that cannot cause a cross of the 8lwma or RSI. Could they be the start of a counter trend move, sure. Just as likely they are a pause before continuation of the trend. I have also added support/resistance levels for proven turns in the market. Could you at times get a better entry than waiting for the 8lwma to cross, of course yes. Most often though the 3-7 days turn will play out before a new trend forms.
Whys that? Well the big boys can't dump all their orders onto the market at once, they wouldn't get filled. It takes some time to turn a big ship around.
Lower time frame entry into trend
Once the D trend has shown itself in terms of your trade definition (e.g. D 3-7 day turn that switches price across the 8lwma, MACD cross, RSI above or below 50 level) there are normally many opportunities to enter from lower time frames before the next trend forms. For example buying 1hr dips in uptrend, selling 1hr rallies in down trend.
So if you have a view that from 21 Nov the D chart is suggesting an uptrend and therefore its buy only, then the issue is on what basis will I buy? You could use an oscillator going over sold, retrace below then move above a moving average, candle patterns from a pivot/round number/fib or some kind of price action like an engulfing close on a lower time frame like the 1hr chart. That's up to each trader but its a lot easier to have a view of the trend and trade in that direction than trying (but inevitably failing) to capture each move in the market.
Have a higher time frame definition of trend, whatever works for you. It could be MACD cross, a moving average cross, price above or below a moving average, a candle pattern etc etc etc.
Have a look at this euraud D chart. I look for the 3-7 day turns in the market that result in a move above or below the 8lwma or RSI cross. That's my general trend definition.
Taking it one step further. The x's mark weak candles that cannot cause a cross of the 8lwma or RSI. Could they be the start of a counter trend move, sure. Just as likely they are a pause before continuation of the trend. I have also added support/resistance levels for proven turns in the market. Could you at times get a better entry than waiting for the 8lwma to cross, of course yes. Most often though the 3-7 days turn will play out before a new trend forms.
Whys that? Well the big boys can't dump all their orders onto the market at once, they wouldn't get filled. It takes some time to turn a big ship around.
Lower time frame entry into trend
Once the D trend has shown itself in terms of your trade definition (e.g. D 3-7 day turn that switches price across the 8lwma, MACD cross, RSI above or below 50 level) there are normally many opportunities to enter from lower time frames before the next trend forms. For example buying 1hr dips in uptrend, selling 1hr rallies in down trend.
So if you have a view that from 21 Nov the D chart is suggesting an uptrend and therefore its buy only, then the issue is on what basis will I buy? You could use an oscillator going over sold, retrace below then move above a moving average, candle patterns from a pivot/round number/fib or some kind of price action like an engulfing close on a lower time frame like the 1hr chart. That's up to each trader but its a lot easier to have a view of the trend and trade in that direction than trying (but inevitably failing) to capture each move in the market.
Summary
Have some definition of higher time frame trend. Then look for an entry signal from a lower time frame. Then research that they work, the majority of the time. Buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a down trend is a trading basic that will not change.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
4hr charts W pivots
As usual there are 3-5 trade possibilities from the 4hr chart simply looing at the RSI cross or price trading above/below the 8lwma.
Monday, September 23, 2013
23 Sep 2013
GU - D closed a large body doji above 8lwma, RSI flat above 50 level but crossed lower. 4hr flow was lower high lower low, that might have turned but could just be Asian session pause. Bias up.
EJ - D closed a doji, no follow through higher after the over sized candle on Thursday. 4hr lower high after divergence and RSI cross below signal line did follow through lower and might continue to do so. Viewing this as dip in uptrend until D confirms otherwise, bias up.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up and on 50 level. Gapped up on the open but strong retrace lower in Asian session. No bias.
AUD - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but above 50 level. Gapped lower on the open but strong move higher in Asian session. No bias.
EJ - D closed a doji, no follow through higher after the over sized candle on Thursday. 4hr lower high after divergence and RSI cross below signal line did follow through lower and might continue to do so. Viewing this as dip in uptrend until D confirms otherwise, bias up.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up and on 50 level. Gapped up on the open but strong retrace lower in Asian session. No bias.
AUD - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but above 50 level. Gapped lower on the open but strong move higher in Asian session. No bias.
Friday, September 20, 2013
20 Sep 2013 Above/below 50 level RSI and above below 8lwma
Our general trend views:
D chart above 50 level on RSI and above 8lwma chances of uptrend very strong. D neg close candle that cannot break below the 8lwma is a good chance just a hesitation in uptrend. Move below and close above D 8lwma again, the chances of trend continuing are strong.
The opposite holds true for below D 50 level on RSI and below 8lwma.
There are always exceptions and GU might be one of them.
GU - D closed negative after the over sized positive close candle (which is why we are still above the 8lwma), RSI cross lower. On any normal day price action of that kind, 140 pip negative close, would almost certainly be an engulfing candle with the expectation of a move lower. We are still above the 8lwma so we'd usually have the view possible pause in uptrend. 4hr is still on higher high higher low wave, RSI crossed lower. 1hr has made lower high lower lows. We have not had a 3-7 day reversal pattern but the FOMC news push up may have messed things up somewhat. Retaining bias up but a 4hr lower high negative close would change that.
EJ - D closed positive through the May high resistance level, little no upper wick. 4hr looks like its setting up for a lower high. Normally bias would be up for trend continuation. The over sized D candle could be the last blow out at the end of a run and for now we need to see if the break above the 1.3370 area holds. Bias up, potential for break of resistance level to fail.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed signal line up with divergence. 4hr higher low yesterday following through higher but for now stalling at the W pivot 1.4337. Its 2 weeks now that we have held at 1.4250, the move below was quickly rejected. Time will tell if this is a major turn, bias up.
AUD - Very similar picture to GU. D close negative after over sized positive close. 4hr looks like closing negative. If EURAUD is to move up AUD needs to fall.
D chart above 50 level on RSI and above 8lwma chances of uptrend very strong. D neg close candle that cannot break below the 8lwma is a good chance just a hesitation in uptrend. Move below and close above D 8lwma again, the chances of trend continuing are strong.
The opposite holds true for below D 50 level on RSI and below 8lwma.
There are always exceptions and GU might be one of them.
GU - D closed negative after the over sized positive close candle (which is why we are still above the 8lwma), RSI cross lower. On any normal day price action of that kind, 140 pip negative close, would almost certainly be an engulfing candle with the expectation of a move lower. We are still above the 8lwma so we'd usually have the view possible pause in uptrend. 4hr is still on higher high higher low wave, RSI crossed lower. 1hr has made lower high lower lows. We have not had a 3-7 day reversal pattern but the FOMC news push up may have messed things up somewhat. Retaining bias up but a 4hr lower high negative close would change that.
EJ - D closed positive through the May high resistance level, little no upper wick. 4hr looks like its setting up for a lower high. Normally bias would be up for trend continuation. The over sized D candle could be the last blow out at the end of a run and for now we need to see if the break above the 1.3370 area holds. Bias up, potential for break of resistance level to fail.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed signal line up with divergence. 4hr higher low yesterday following through higher but for now stalling at the W pivot 1.4337. Its 2 weeks now that we have held at 1.4250, the move below was quickly rejected. Time will tell if this is a major turn, bias up.
AUD - Very similar picture to GU. D close negative after over sized positive close. 4hr looks like closing negative. If EURAUD is to move up AUD needs to fall.
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