Recap 20 Mar, EUR higher low following divergence

EUR - View was: D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.The down bias never played out. That means we are going counter to the D trend so we have to assess if those rules are in play. We had a D support level at 1.2878. It looked like that was broken lower but that move struggled. We had 4hr positive divergence. Then there were 1hr higher lows going into Frankfurt open and again after London open, higher lows following divergence normally a good set up. The 1hr did show the short term flow had flipped to buys.


GU - View was: After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.
Down bias did play out until the news provided some wild swings again.

EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR, bias down.
Very similar picture to EUR. EJ following EUR (and UJ) higher with a higher low before and after London open.

 

EUR GU EJ 20 Mar

EUR - D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

GU - After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.

EJ - Similar picture to EUR, bias down.

Recap 19 Mar

EUR - View was: Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.
50% retrace held, negative close lower high 3 bar reversal on 4hr set up move down.

GU - View was: D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.
It did with some wild swings on 1hr.

EJ - View was: Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.
The fib/W pivot/resistance level held, move lower set up by a 4hr shooting star.

EUR GU EJ 19 Mar

EUR - Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.

GU - D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.

EJ - Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.

Recap 18 Mar

EUR - View was: We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.
Gap was filled.

GU - View was: D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.
Small range no follow through.

EJ - View was: Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.
Gap was filled.

EUR GU EJ 18 Mar

EUR - We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.

GU - D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.

EJ - Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.

4hr charts W pivots lower highs/higher lows following divergence

As usual I am posting the 4hr charts to show how important the W pivots and support and resistance levels are. As is typical there were only 2 or 3 decent moves for the week.

I have also added the divergences and when a higher low or lower high follows divergence price action is confirming and they are usually good set ups to trade.