Sunday, August 11, 2013
4hr charts W pivots.
As usual the 4hr charts with W pivots. They highlight the importance of W pivots, support and resistance areas and the number of trades that can reasonably be expected from a 4hr chart (typically 3-5 per week).
Friday, August 9, 2013
9 Aug 2013
EUR - D closed positive and we are right on the 18/19 June highs. Bias up but we can obviously react to the resistance level 1.3400/3415.
GU - D closed marginally positive, no real progress higher, struggling with the May highs. Bias up but we can obviously react lower to the resistance level 1.5570/5600.
EJ - D closed positive reacting to the previously mentioned July lows. The 4hr is on a lower high after moving into the 29-31 July lows (support now resistance?). It appears the D is a move up counter trend and an opportunity to sell a rally. One of those tipping points, a positive close here on 4hr puts us on a higher low and a change in flow for the short term at least.
EURAUD - D closed negative. 4hr lower high lower low, last close a doji. Asian session shown many times it will move EURAUD when it wants to, but not today. Its been a struggle and move up would be no surprise but bias down.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr higher high higher low. We are at the 18, 25 July lows (support now resistance). Bias up but we can obviously react lower to the resistance level 0.9130/9150.
GU - D closed marginally positive, no real progress higher, struggling with the May highs. Bias up but we can obviously react lower to the resistance level 1.5570/5600.
EJ - D closed positive reacting to the previously mentioned July lows. The 4hr is on a lower high after moving into the 29-31 July lows (support now resistance?). It appears the D is a move up counter trend and an opportunity to sell a rally. One of those tipping points, a positive close here on 4hr puts us on a higher low and a change in flow for the short term at least.
EURAUD - D closed negative. 4hr lower high lower low, last close a doji. Asian session shown many times it will move EURAUD when it wants to, but not today. Its been a struggle and move up would be no surprise but bias down.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr higher high higher low. We are at the 18, 25 July lows (support now resistance). Bias up but we can obviously react lower to the resistance level 0.9130/9150.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Article by Ralph Shell
See the link COT REPORT BY RALPH SHELL and go to articles. This quote "As we have often said, the most important fundamental in currency trading is the flow of money" is part of his post YEN BEARS TAKING THE SUMMER OFF.
I could not have said that better myself and that is the basis of our trading methodology. See http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/06/question-on-absolute-basics-of-method.html for a little further information.
I could not have said that better myself and that is the basis of our trading methodology. See http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/06/question-on-absolute-basics-of-method.html for a little further information.
8 Aug 2013
EUR - The smaller bounces lower from 1.3300 did see that level fail and we have moved above. D closed positive near the 31 July high. 4hr on higher high higher low. We are approaching another key resistance level 1.3400/3415. Bias up.
GU - D closed positive on a big move up reacting to news, stopping at an identified resistance level on D/W M1. Virtually no move lower in Asian session. Bias up.
EJ - D closed negative. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. We are in the area of 5-11 July lows so we can move up from here but bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a shooting star but is still on higher high and higher low. 4hr on a lower high, with a 150 pip fall already this morning no idea what this pair can still do. Short term bias down.
AUD - D closed a hammer. 4hr on higher high higher low. Bias up.
GU - D closed positive on a big move up reacting to news, stopping at an identified resistance level on D/W M1. Virtually no move lower in Asian session. Bias up.
EJ - D closed negative. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. We are in the area of 5-11 July lows so we can move up from here but bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a shooting star but is still on higher high and higher low. 4hr on a lower high, with a 150 pip fall already this morning no idea what this pair can still do. Short term bias down.
AUD - D closed a hammer. 4hr on higher high higher low. Bias up.
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
7 Aug 2013
EUR - D closed positive, 4hr several upper wicks rejecting the move above 1.3300 again. The bounces lower from this key area are getting smaller suggesting it may fail and we move up. If I was to buy and take that chance I'd be looking for space between entry and the highs and to get stop to break even quickly. No way of knowing, no bias.
GU - D closed a small range shooting star rejecting the identified resistance level, no RSI cross lower, no cross below 8lwma. 4hr showing negative divergence and the struggle at this level for 2 days, RSI has crossed lower for a scalp sell. We have had 1hr lower highs late in US session/early Asian session following the 4hr divergence. Can go either way, no bias.
EJ - D closed negative, 4hr on lower high lower low. A strong move down already during Asian session. Bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a hammer, 4hr reverted to higher low. Bias up.
AUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up but below 50 level. 4hr stalled below W pivot 0.9019, RSI crossed lower. Might be shaping up that the 2 day move up is a counter trend rally. A 1hr lower high would suggest a sell and bias down.
GU - D closed a small range shooting star rejecting the identified resistance level, no RSI cross lower, no cross below 8lwma. 4hr showing negative divergence and the struggle at this level for 2 days, RSI has crossed lower for a scalp sell. We have had 1hr lower highs late in US session/early Asian session following the 4hr divergence. Can go either way, no bias.
EJ - D closed negative, 4hr on lower high lower low. A strong move down already during Asian session. Bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a hammer, 4hr reverted to higher low. Bias up.
AUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up but below 50 level. 4hr stalled below W pivot 0.9019, RSI crossed lower. Might be shaping up that the 2 day move up is a counter trend rally. A 1hr lower high would suggest a sell and bias down.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
6 Aug 2013
EUR - D closed negative with a small range. The 1 attempt above 1.3300 last week was quickly rejected. The 4hr chart shows the sideways mess. Whilst I suspect down chances are won't be watching this pair too closely, no bias.
GU - D closed positive but no follow through in the US session and Asian session. After such a strong move up that is an immediate warning sign. The D close should be bias up with at least some space to the 1.5400 resistance area and the next W pivot W R1 1.5435. Should the open 4hr candle close negative it looks like we will have a double top, sell divergence and RSI cross lower. Bias down.
EJ - D closed negative, Asian session has had a decent move up rejecting the move below 1.3000. 4hr is still on a lower high lower low, bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a shooting star rejecting an identified resistance level 1.4900, after the strong close on 31 July we have struggled to go higher. 4hr negative divergence and we have had 1hr lower highs following divergence yesterday. RBA interest rate news just out it looks like we are going lower.
AUD - D closed a hammer rejecting the move below 0.8900. 4hr positive divergence and we have had 1hr higher lows following this. It looks like the RBA news is trying to continue the push up.
GU - D closed positive but no follow through in the US session and Asian session. After such a strong move up that is an immediate warning sign. The D close should be bias up with at least some space to the 1.5400 resistance area and the next W pivot W R1 1.5435. Should the open 4hr candle close negative it looks like we will have a double top, sell divergence and RSI cross lower. Bias down.
EJ - D closed negative, Asian session has had a decent move up rejecting the move below 1.3000. 4hr is still on a lower high lower low, bias down.
EURAUD - D closed a shooting star rejecting an identified resistance level 1.4900, after the strong close on 31 July we have struggled to go higher. 4hr negative divergence and we have had 1hr lower highs following divergence yesterday. RBA interest rate news just out it looks like we are going lower.
AUD - D closed a hammer rejecting the move below 0.8900. 4hr positive divergence and we have had 1hr higher lows following this. It looks like the RBA news is trying to continue the push up.
Monday, August 5, 2013
5 Aug 2013
As expected most pairs did very little until NFP numbers came out of Friday. There were some big reactions then, as usual we'll need to see if these moves follow through or re-race back to their starting points.
EUR - D closed positive RSI above 50 level but could not cross its signal line. The 1.3300 resistance level held. 4hr evening star pattern. 1hr showing that Asian session could not even move 30 pips up to challenge the tops of Fri's range. Conflicting information , we can go either way no bias.
GU - D closed stronger than EUR, higher than the previous 2 closes. The 4hr lower high lower low now broken. 4hr also on an evening star pattern. The D close suggests up but there is always the chance Fri's move higher was a news reaction and not a change in trend. No bias.
EJ - D closed a doji, could not cross RSI lower or below the 8lwma. 4hr RSI crossed lower and now appears to be heading towards a lower high negative close. 1hr showing divergence at the 1.3200 highs and possible support at 1.3100. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive, 4hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
AUD - D closed a large body doji, 4hr still on lower high lower low, positive divergence now showing. Bias down.
EUR - D closed positive RSI above 50 level but could not cross its signal line. The 1.3300 resistance level held. 4hr evening star pattern. 1hr showing that Asian session could not even move 30 pips up to challenge the tops of Fri's range. Conflicting information , we can go either way no bias.
GU - D closed stronger than EUR, higher than the previous 2 closes. The 4hr lower high lower low now broken. 4hr also on an evening star pattern. The D close suggests up but there is always the chance Fri's move higher was a news reaction and not a change in trend. No bias.
EJ - D closed a doji, could not cross RSI lower or below the 8lwma. 4hr RSI crossed lower and now appears to be heading towards a lower high negative close. 1hr showing divergence at the 1.3200 highs and possible support at 1.3100. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive, 4hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
AUD - D closed a large body doji, 4hr still on lower high lower low, positive divergence now showing. Bias down.
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