Today's trade

Did not trade at all yesterday had some things to attend to.

GU - had nice lh's from around 6am gmt. A little early for me this am.

Eur had a similar set up as au. Both struggled at identified resistance areas. We just happened to trade au. Counter trend so I'm happy to bank pips at target level 50% of yesterday's range, 0.9940, which provided support area during Asian trade.

COT

From Forexrazor, see under usefull links. Looks like good reason for Eur short squeeze.

Overview: The collective open interest (OI) show only little change for the week, and did not show the big internal market shifts. Total OI was 3,035 contracts lower. The euro was reduced by 11,809, and the very small DI had a reduction of 3,505. Offsetting this was an increase in the pound, 8,052, and the yen 3,694.

The feature of the week was the specs flipping their positions in the pound and the euro. Short positions held by the spec in the euro and the pound in the previous week had been about 62k contracts. After their massive buying of the euro and the pound this position flipped in the euro and the pound by a little over than 10k contracts. This massive shift resulted in a very big increase in the short USD position. When specs are long a currency at the CME, this means they, by default, are short the USD. The total USD in the contracts we cover was 196, 079 contracts, up from 113,624 in the previous week. The USD short is now this biggest it has been since the report of 11 16 2010. The only contract were the spec remains long is in the DI.

In the pound, all three groups flipped their positions, and the big spec euro flip involved the purchase of a lot of euros. The market had a collective epiphany and they sold the USD and bought the euro and the pound.

Small specs had the largest percentage share of the market in the SF, 47.2%, the C$, 36.2%, and the A$, 28.2%. There largest shor positions were in the yen, 27.9%, and the euro 25.9%. Since they remain short and the euro acts well, there may be short covering in the euro. Ignoring the large spec dominance in the DI, and the NZ$, specs have the largest long positions in the A$, 52.4%, the C$ 49.2%, and the SF 44.8%. On the short side the big specs have their largest positions in the pound, 28.4%, and the SF, 28.1%.

EURUSD short squeeze?

See USD and EUR COT with forexrazor comments:

This was a very big weekly increase in the euro OI. It is even bigger when spreading was reduced, down 5,738 contracts to 13.2% of the total. The big up in the OI was mostly the work of the big spec, although the small specs added to their short position also. What is interesting about the report is the market action after the end of the period. The big increase in the OI was done when the market was going down. After the hook bottom and turnaround on Tuesday, the market rallied sharply, closing at 1.3382, and giving the new shorts a loss. Total spec short positions was up over 24,000 contracts to almost 50k total. The Thursday market activity on the big up day resulted in liquidation of 11,112 contracts (futures only). Unless there was additional short covering on Friday, with a big decline in the OI, we can probably anticipate more of a short squeeze soon.

Trades

2 trades, hammer push up from 50 level. Nice higher low push through 75 psych level. +12 and +25.

One trade today

Internet connection was very poor earlier. One trade today, sell 3282 target 50 psych level hit.

One of todays trades

In between an illness in the family and the holiday break first post for some time.

1hr closed positive as did 15 min. Nice 5 min hl, little/no upper wick. Target originally 5570 (we have that as our days open) but for this time of day we are happy with anything around 20, we got +24.