Monday, January 24, 2011

COT

From Forexrazor, see under usefull links. Looks like good reason for Eur short squeeze.

Overview: The collective open interest (OI) show only little change for the week, and did not show the big internal market shifts. Total OI was 3,035 contracts lower. The euro was reduced by 11,809, and the very small DI had a reduction of 3,505. Offsetting this was an increase in the pound, 8,052, and the yen 3,694.

The feature of the week was the specs flipping their positions in the pound and the euro. Short positions held by the spec in the euro and the pound in the previous week had been about 62k contracts. After their massive buying of the euro and the pound this position flipped in the euro and the pound by a little over than 10k contracts. This massive shift resulted in a very big increase in the short USD position. When specs are long a currency at the CME, this means they, by default, are short the USD. The total USD in the contracts we cover was 196, 079 contracts, up from 113,624 in the previous week. The USD short is now this biggest it has been since the report of 11 16 2010. The only contract were the spec remains long is in the DI.

In the pound, all three groups flipped their positions, and the big spec euro flip involved the purchase of a lot of euros. The market had a collective epiphany and they sold the USD and bought the euro and the pound.

Small specs had the largest percentage share of the market in the SF, 47.2%, the C$, 36.2%, and the A$, 28.2%. There largest shor positions were in the yen, 27.9%, and the euro 25.9%. Since they remain short and the euro acts well, there may be short covering in the euro. Ignoring the large spec dominance in the DI, and the NZ$, specs have the largest long positions in the A$, 52.4%, the C$ 49.2%, and the SF 44.8%. On the short side the big specs have their largest positions in the pound, 28.4%, and the SF, 28.1%.

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