From the beginning of May the EUR downtrend on D chart resumed. A few weeks ago on one of the forexfactory forums someone posted that his recent EUR back tests showed 7 out of 8 counter trend 1hr trades failed. At the time quite right because the market sentiment, charts, COT data was completely against buying EUR. A couple of ECB president speeches in the last week or so and this statement changed a little.
The last one I remember recently was the same scenario for EURCHF. It was sells only until the central bank intervened in the market giving buyers a chance.
So when you are back testing unless you have notes as to what happened and when you'll never know why a 1hr signal counter trend failed when some seem to work fine.
I would suggest though there are times when you may dip your toe into the counter trend trades. If there is some news that changes the one direction only perception. Together with some solid evidence on your charts. That won't be 1 candle that causes that time frames indicator to cross. Some combination of reversal candles on higher time frames (e.g. engulfing counter trend close D), higher time frame divergence (D perhaps 4hr), proven support/resistance levels where the market has turned on a higher time frame (see D chart attached), multiple candle patterns on 1hr (e.g. higher low/lower high, double top/bottom, morning evening star etc), fib levels etc etc.
A confluence of reasons to consider counter trend not just 1 candle 1 time frame.
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