- We don't trade UK open on a Monday usually waiting an hour or two for things to settle down. Often waiting for US session particularly if trends are not strong i.e. if time frames conflicting.
- If we have dips/rallies counter to the D trend and the 1hr flow has gone against the D trend we'd be waiting for 1hr flow to resume flow in line with D. This would imply good 4hr candle, 1hr higher high higher low flow resuming. A good example would be EURAUD this morning, we have a base at 1.3840 but I am not yet convinced the flow is back up so being a Monday morning we are not buyers yet. If this is wrong we are happy to live with the missed opportunity.
EUR - D closed with what appears to be a bearish hanging man, RSI has crossed signal line but above 50 level. Above the 8lwma however with a hanging man candle you'd expect that.. 4hr is in a triangle so we have a higher low then a lower high. D has not yet given the 3-7 day reversal pattern I'd like to see. View is that this is a pause in the 4 week uptrend.
GU - D also closed a bearish hanging man. Again we'll see what the reaction is to the area 1.5720-70 the highs from June/July '12. Looking back don't just look at the D wick highs look at the body open/closes. We seem to have divergence showing but price action has not yet confirmed. We had a strong reaction lower on Friday to 1.5720 and after that 4hr is on a higher low (candle still open). Viewing as pause in uptrend and we'll see the reaction at the highs.
EJ - A strong D close at the 125.25 lows where there has been buying. A good candle close should follow through lower. 4hr has had a higher low and a morning star after the divergence (my RSI is set on close). Viewing as counter trend rally.
EURAUD - Friday's positive close candle was weak compared to the strong down move on Thursday. We are above the 20/50 ema's and the RSI 50 level. Also still on higher high higher low flow. 4hr positive divergence at the lows. Viewing as dip in uptrend.
AUD - More conflict between D and 4hr. Viewing for now as rally in downtrend.
CAD - D below the ema's and RSI 50 level, 4hr also. This suggests downside. We have buyers at 1.0134 and above.
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