Time to re-consider?

I have to seriously think about my forex future. I personally do not know of reliable trade managers, maybe they are out there I just haven't come across them, maybe I have never really looked. I am now heavily involved in the family business and do not have the time for trading. We hoped that Mrs V would be able to trade on her own but she has had some health issues and done 5 trades this month.

When I get home usually after an 11 hour day its to help with dinner etc etc and even trying to get time to trade London close has not been there.

So if the family business continues with more contracts at the same level next year the alternatives are first hope Mrs V gets better and can trade more often, make time for London Close trades or consider a longer term strategy.

Frank Paul could be an option 9500 + PIPS in 7 months as his trades are longer term in nature. I am looking at this seriously, I just don't have the time to do the research required, need some help with the spade work.

I'm sure lots of people are in similar situations, I still have to find the balance between wanting to trade and the requirements of a family business which I have a significant financial interest in (ie its not a job I would be prepared to let slide to use their time for my personal reasons).

Fx Code Base

I was looking for a RSI divergence indicator and came out at this site, http://www.fxcodebase.com/ it certainly seems very interesting and from what I can see no charge. Will definitely be investigating this further.

Frank Paul on Fractals

I use a lot of this in my trading and its worth a look, copy and paste the link, http://www.forexmentor.com/swingtrader/update/20111022/ and you can view the services he offers at Fibonacci Swing Trader and Daily Portfolio Advisory Service at Forexmentor

Shirley reaches 10,000 pips from London Close strategy, see link above

I got this message from Vic Noble on Shirley's stunning results. This free webinar is obviously well worth watching, its free! You can also look at the links, 90% win rate strategy. 90% win rate strategy.

This is a final reminder that tomorrow, October 1, 2011,
at 1 PM Eastern Time (New York), we will be hosting a FREE
webinar where we will show the steps involved in our London
Close Trade strategy. This strategy has enabled Shirley Hudson
to make over 10,000 average pips per lot in under 21 months
(actually she didn't even trade for 2 of those months).

This session will give you an excellent overview of the
strategy, and of course you'll have the opportunity to ask
questions as well.

You can register for this event at the following link:

==> https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/754668642

If you haven't already heard my latest interview with Shirley,
you can hear it here:

===> http://youtu.be/bcFc3Q88w8A

The webinar will be recorded, but we would encourage you
to register and attend live as you will get a chance to ask
questions. The webinar has already started filling up rapidly,
so please click the registration link above to be sure your
spot is reserved.

Fri 20th Aug

This could be viewed as a buy or sell day. On the D chart Thurs was a red hammer that could not follow through above 1.6500. RSI had rolled over but not crossed 50 line or its average.

There was the potential to lose money in the London session but this should have again been recovered (plus) in the US move. 1hr above its RSI 50 line, above its 8 lwma.

Thurs 18 Aug

A very messy day, largely held within a 50 pip range.

Wed 17 Aug

A massive move down that was the UK MPC minutes news release.

The 1hr closed positive back into the trend, above the RSI 50/8 lwma. This set up a string of higher lows into the US session.

Yet again the head fake was down and the major move happened in the US session.

Tues 16 Aug

Whilst there are good sells in line with the 1hr these are again counter trend to the D and 4hr charts.

Again the LO head fake is a move down. The US session is the biggest mover and the green 1hr hammer is shown on the 5 min chart with the red line at 15.55. There are several higher lows that follow.

Mon 15 Aug

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but going into this week the D chart shows a positive close and then a higher close hammer last Friday. RSI is crossing the 50 line/red average line so a generally positive day can be expected on Monday. The 4hr chart is above its 8 lwma, RSI 50 line, RSI crossed upwards, all positive and suggesting trend up.

The 3 candles on the 1hour are 6am gmt (arrow down), 8am gmt (left arrow up) and 12 gmt. If your focus is up due to the D and 4hr charts you might not sell after the 6 gmt shooting star, or if you did sell accept its counter trend and be happy to bank pips.

From the 5 min chart. There is a nice counter trend lh sell arrow left. There is a hl buy before the close of the 1hr candle back into the D/4hr chart trend. After the positive 1hr close there is a hl right on the round number 6300 that most likely would have hit a small stop.

The 1hr is now moving up, we are above 8 lwma and above the RSI 50 line. The 1hr candle closes are shown and the higher lows, see the 2 right arrows up. It seems the LO head fake is the move down today. Price eventually runs up to 1.6410 with the US session continuing the London direction.

Trading ideas and days review.

Whilst we no longer really trade Frankfurt, the hour (FH) before London opens (LO) we have looked at numerous charts. Generally we would not trade 2 moves in the same direction as half way through FH there is a strong chance of a reversal.

We will look at trading higher lows and lower highs (1 2 3 tops/bottoms) and double tops/bottoms at this time (FH/LO).

After 9.30 gmt you are more likely to get the bigger moves of the day forming. So trades in line with 1hr at close of 9am gmt candle can be considered. If the move is small then the LO head fake has not yet shown itself. A reversal then will most likely signal the bigger move for the day. Chances of London having 2 big reversal trades are slim.

Chances are that this move will continue to 5 day ATR and then may have a London Close trade reversal.

LO head fake Fri 12 Aug

Perhaps a difficult head fake to figure out. The eur 1hr hammer certainly gave a trade which gu didn't (large body neg close but decent wick reject of Asian lows).

LO head fake Thur 11 Aug

Again the move up into LO was a fake. London open session did very little again. The eur in particular gave better trades. If you were looking to sell the eur doji's at the highs were better sell candles than the gu positive close inside bar.

LO head fake Wed 10 Aug.

There were several losing trades today.

GU move into LO was a fake up move, today eur did have successful hl trades until the Asian highs were hit and the big moves were lower. Any losing trades in morning session were again more than made up.

LO head fake Tues 9 Aug.

Today the eur was sideways, perhaps due to the FOMC decision due that evening. GU again did very little in the morning needing the US session to come in for direction. The move up into LO was again a fake though.

London open head fake Mon 12 Aug

I have put on a couple of lines that show 8 am and 9 am gmt. Also a couple of obvious support and resistance lines from the Asian session.

Today for both currencies the move up at LO is the head fake that shows the trend of the day. I have some of the clear lower highs. GU did have a couple of losing trades but would have been a comfortable winner on the day still.

Just one comment on eur, the x trade. This is a type of 2b trade that I have seen frequently, a counter trend move before the US open that fails and moves back into the trend of the day. I am very careful taking counter trend moves before the US open and want decent 1hr set up candles and not a 15 min reversal candle.

London Open head fake

I have long thought that if you can get the London open head fake right then you'll have a good chance of trading successfully. You have a chance of getting the direction of the day correct. That of course doesn't guarantee success, if you are using small stops you still have to get your entry correct.

I'll post a few charts from this week for eur and gu. They might have a few things in common such as a move around London open that reverses.

London Close trades

There were 2 set ups this week. One I took and again worked perfectly. Yesterday several currencies set up and triggered. The eur trade would have had around a 10 pip draw down, others as often the case virtually nothing.

Whilst i didn't manage to get a trade yesterday am still staggered to have not see a losing set up.

Ralph Shell

See the Ralph Shell COT link for an article 'Further Weakness for the Aussie?'. I have added my first comments to his great work. I was using this chart in my analysis.

London Close trade

Set up and triggered on Eur. I am relatively new to this method taking profits early, 16 pips today, again though a winning trade with virtually no draw down. I am quite amazed as to how successfully these trades play out and the 90% winning trades claim is certainly true in my experience so far.

Trade but against the rules

This higher low just above 4300 was a 100% system trade. 1hr up, 15 min positive close higher low little/no upper wick but I couldn't take it. At that stage price had already exceeded the 5 day ATR. If we had a bigger portion of the move fine then I would continue to take system trades, however we only had a fraction of move from Mrs V's trade and I was not prepared to risk that. 100 pips up I'll risk 15 on a system trade when ATR exceeded, less than 30 up then I won't. That's a rule we work to.

Tempted

I was tempted to take this one for an 85/15 trade but with US news in about 30 minutes I left it. The news took it up but you can never be sure which way it will go if you are relying on news.

Trade

In some ways a let down today. I was not attentive enough and missed the system higher low at 4145. Good support level, 15 minute positive close and perfect 5 min higher low little/no upper wick.

I was out and Mrs V got the higher low at 4175 after the 1hr positive close. She didn't enter again.

Outstanding day and London Close

An outstanding day for lower highs on eur and gu.

London Close trades set up nicely and triggered. I focused on eur and gu. I chose gu for 17 pips. Eur went for 30, neither had any real drawdown. A very nice way to end a stunning day.

Wait 20 mins and 15/85 trade

I missed out on the earlier gu, eur Franfurt open trades as we were just too late getting set up, the 2b evening star pattern at the 6375 high. Then had lots of internet (not platform) problems so would not even had chance to consider the move up from 6325.

News pushed price lower with a small retrace to 25 level support became resistance. Set up classic lower high, wait 20 mins try again, 15/85 trade. 5 min lower high little/no lower wick, exit just above 85 level. Mrs V happy, so am I.

Act quickly, free webinar

Thanks to everyone who helped make our recent "How to Trade Forex Entries" June 8th webinar such a success -- over 689 traders worldwide registered to get their spots in this popular event with myself and my colleague Ken Calhoun. In case you couldn't join us, we've made the entire webinar recording available for you here, at:

http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=M9jAa&m=JDQbVuNTlBL8RL&b=B7K.Mh99Uygbuz1yvM3gpg

(123 Mb) To download this practical forex "how to" trading webinar, simply right click on the link above and choose file/save as. Please download it right now, because we'll be taking it off the server soon.

What You'll Learn:

- How to find the best pairs to trade in today's markets
- How to successfully trade them, from start to finish
- Entry and exit tactics for managing your trades
- How to trade cup and high-velocity forex breakouts
- and much more

Go ahead and download the webinar video today, and see how to
sharpen your trading skills right away. And have a great weekend
ahead.

http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=M9jAa&m=JDQbVuNTlBL8RL&b=B7K.Mh99Uygbuz1yvM3gpg

Yours in trading,

Peter Bain
Forexmentor.com

3 x 20 mins try again + 85/15

This higher low pattern in Asian session when I was asleep. Pretty much perfect wait 20 minutes and try again higher lows. The middle arrow up was also an 85/15 trade.

85/15 trade example

Perfect higher low. Often when gu (also eur) is moving up through 85 level it will push through the round number to + - 15. The opposite is also true when falling through 15 it will push to 85. Whether it is big boys taking out some stops I don't know.

I trade them with entries from higher lows and lower highs as usual, sometimes I'll exit a portion at the RN just in case it stops and doesn't go through.

Trades

2 possibilities this am.

Higher low buy 5 min little/no upper wick. 1hr positive close above 8 lwma, 15 min positive close. 100% system trade.

The sell didn't get that one. 1hr closed with an upper wick, 15 min upper wick, doji then shooting star. 5 min lower high little/no lower wick, we passed on it.

COT

Ralph Shell has released this weeks COT article, follow the link on the right.

Ralph Shell article

Euro Bulls Suffer set back is there more to come? see the COT by Ralph Shell link then go to articles.

Todays trades

There was a nice trade lower high move through 6300. Previously we would not have taken this with the round number so close but I was influenced by 4hr charts.

2nd trade. 15 min did have a hammer after a positive close but no follow through higher. We then had an evening star pattern (see candlesticker link), flag, lower high at the 4 hr SR area 6280. With a trade in the bank and 5 day ATR exceeded Mrs V requested we bank +30.

Wait 20 minutes and try again

Sometimes works pretty much to order. The x's show peaks and the arrows up the higher lows by and large 20 minutes later.

London Close trades

Vic Noble published these returns from Shirley. Obviously they are her returns and no 2 traders will get the same. However 27% for the month from 1% risk is outstanding. I have to pay a lot more attention to these trades it seems.

From Vic Noble's email:

I’ll keep this short: If you want to see just how good the
London Close Trade strategy can be, take a look at this
week’s video. To say it’s impressive would be a massive
understatement. It was made in response to a member question.

You can view this week’s video here, cut and paste into your browser in need:
http://www.youtube.com/user/forexteam#p/a/u/0/lJoI7wkLNFk

Wait 20 mins and try again

Wait 20 minutes and try again. I picked up this simple idea from a fellow trader at forex factory. When higher lows or lower highs are running nicely a move will be followed by a short period of consolidation before moving again, 20 minutes or so.

There are exceptions of course. When price moves aggressively away from a moving average (chart has 8 lwma and 20 ema) due to news etc a longer period of consolidation may be required.

The gu 15 min chart shows that idea clearly. When price consolidates back to the ma's and gives a good candle (solid engulfing close little/no lower wick or shooting stars) the moves down continue. The x's show the areas where quick moves away from the 8 lwma need consolidation far exceeding 20 mins before continuing.

The eur chart has one strong news move away from the lwma. Takes around 60 mins to show an engulfing negative close and thereafter hugs the ma.

None Farm Payroll

Forgot this morning on NFP days the best chance for a trade is often very early in and around Frankfurt open ie 1hr before London open. So probably no trading for me today until that news is well out of the way.

London Close trade

With the US$ on a tear yesterday after news I didn't even try for a London close trade.

Interest rate day

With interest rate decisions in UK and Europe not normally a day I like to trade, it can get very choppy. Might just be a good idea to take the day off.

London Close trade

Yesterday AUDUSD set up and triggered for 25+ pips with virtually no draw down again. I was making dinner with Mrs V sick and didn't take. This is just to build a record.

Todays trade

Fairly straight forward trade. 1hr headed up we are above its 8 lwma, 15 min had a small inside bar but this 5 min hl had taken that out to upside. 15 min had good angle up on ma's. 5 min higher low, little/no upper wick after price pulls back to ma's. Move up from daily pivot/25 psych level, high volume point of control area.

Ralph Shell report

Ralph Shell has posted a new report on his expectations for EUR see EUR WHERE TO FROM HERE and go to the articles page.

COT reports

For all the info click here GET COT REPORTS and go to articles page.

From Ralph Shell. Specs continued their aggressive short stance in the USD. The net long something else and short the USD was 332,394 contracts, and it would have been even higher, except for the big short position by specs in the yen. Specs were long a little more than 98k in both the C$ and the A$, but they were also net long the euro by a large 83.8k contracts. While some of the indicators show that the dollars slide might be due for a correction, as long as the money keeps flowing into the market, a contrary USD long will be costly.

(Authors note: Thanks for the prayers and wishes from many of you while I spent 25 days confined to a hospital bed recovering from pneumonia. My strength is slowly returning but I have yet to find my nerve to enter these volatile markets.)

US Dollar Index: The OI increased only modestly during the period. Large specs continue to dominate the trade in this small market, They remain short the DI but did reduce their net position as they bought 3,066 contracts. Small specs are modest longs in the DI.
Euro (EUR/USD):The increase in the OI by over 18k was due primarily to commercials increasing both their long and short positions, and by a 7.4k increase in spreading. This is assumed to be option activity. Large specs are good sized longs on a 3 to 1 ratio, and added a minor amount to their positions. Small specs are long and added a little over 4k contracts to both the long and the short side.
British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD):The specs added to their long positions in the pound, with the little guy active buying 4.3k and selling out 1.9k of their shorts. Both size specs are over a 2.5 ratio of longs to shorts. Commercials are about a 3 to 1 short in the pound.

Good examples

And these are exactly the kind of lower high entries we'll be hoping to see.

Ralph Shell

Some good news today, Ralph Shell the man behind the COT reports seems to have recovered from a serious illness. See the COT link and then under articles.

I hope to be back trading perhaps from this evening if it looks like a London close trade sets up, otherwise tomorrow.

London close trade

Eur and gu didn't set up. EJ did, approx 8 pip draw down nice 20 pip trade. I'll be watching these set ups with great interest.

Gives earlier entries than just about anything I've seen, very nice.

Todays trade

I tried including an indi that shows other time frames on the 5 min chart. What looked correct on my charts came out squashed up on the saved screenshot. Anyway the chart confirming entry and a chart showing an arrow that you can actually make out.

Mrs V's trade

Mrs V did get this one yesterday.

1hr positive close above the 8 lwma. Closed on the days open which can be a tricky area, we are looking to buy though. 15 min has a positive close after a pullback to 50% of yesterdays range/50 psych level, daily pivot area. 5 min higher low, little/no upper wick entry 6263.

Otherwise engaged

My mother has been fairly ill recently and went into hospital last week. Unfortunately she passed away last Sunday. I've either been mentally absent or busy sorting things out and have not traded for some time.

Todays trade

I have been tied up for a few days and have not traded.

1hr shooting star, 15 min upper wick doji. 5 min lower high shooting star little/no lower wick.

Target is 6250 but we are struggling here 6260 area and with the previous chop around 6250 banked for +28.

Indicators

I have used a variety of indicators over the last few months, been deciding which to use for divergence.

At the moment I'm using:

1)8 lwma on 1hr, 15 min and 5 min. In addition 21 lwma on 15 min chart as a trend guide. If you have good angle and separation and enter on good candles in direction of trend that's not a bad general idea to follow.
2)CCI 14 on all time frames for divergence. This is for 2b trades and 5 min higher lows/lower highs that follow the divergence.
3)I have added a market profile indicator that gives the highest volume area for each day. They offer surprisingly good support and resistance areas.

The strategy using 5 min hl/lh's and 2b's remains the same.