If we are considering counter trend we want over whelming additional information to consider, such as:
- Proven support/resistance levels.
- W pivots.
- Divergence on higher time frames.
- Price
action proving it does not want to progress for hours, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes.
- Psych levels eg round numbers
In addition to the right kind of price action on 15 min, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
If trend is there
Anatomy of a trading day, if the trend is there this is the kind of price action you'll often get
http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/anatomy-of-trading-day-eur.html
http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/anatomy-of-trading-day-eur.html
Top down analysis
These are a series of posts around the general theme of top down analysis. Starting with the D, then looking at 4hr and 1hr flows (HH HL or LH LL) to get a feel for the direction of the day.
Methodology MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html
Method expanded MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/recap-29-nov-method-expanded-multi-time.html
Simple effective D analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/recap-29-nov-method-expanded-multi-time.html
Method expanded MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/04/method-expanded.html
Methodology MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html
Method expanded MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/recap-29-nov-method-expanded-multi-time.html
Simple effective D analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/recap-29-nov-method-expanded-multi-time.html
Method expanded MTF analysis http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/04/method-expanded.html
Monday, December 17, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 17 Dec
Recap 14 Dec
As often happens Fri morning was choppy and we were happy to sit on the sidelines. It was not until after the US news that the up bias played out. We were not in front of the computer at the time but patient trend traders were well rewarded.
17 Dec
EUR - We are right on the Sep highs after a solid W engulfing close. 5 days move up with barely a retracement does suggest a pullback is likely. Bias up perhaps from the D pivot 1.3132 or M2 1.3112.
GU - Similar story to EUR, strong W close right on a proven resistance level. Bias up but like EUR we can always react lower to the R level.
EJ - Gapped up on reaction to their election. There may be pressure to move lower to close the gap but then bias up.
As often happens Fri morning was choppy and we were happy to sit on the sidelines. It was not until after the US news that the up bias played out. We were not in front of the computer at the time but patient trend traders were well rewarded.
17 Dec
EUR - We are right on the Sep highs after a solid W engulfing close. 5 days move up with barely a retracement does suggest a pullback is likely. Bias up perhaps from the D pivot 1.3132 or M2 1.3112.
GU - Similar story to EUR, strong W close right on a proven resistance level. Bias up but like EUR we can always react lower to the R level.
EJ - Gapped up on reaction to their election. There may be pressure to move lower to close the gap but then bias up.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 14 Dec
Recap 13 Dec
Counter trend falls early in London session did provide buying opportunities in line with bias.
14 Dec
EUR - D closed a doji previous highs respected, 1.3100 proving to be a key level. The failure to go higher is clearly shown on 4hr chart which is showing divergence (price has not yet confirmed), 1hr looking choppy with divergence and its get tight between possible entry and the highs. We seem to have an inverse head and shoulders with 1.3100 the neckline. Bias up, getting an entry might be tricky. There obviously can be fall from 1.3100.
GU - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. The negative close seems to have confirmed the divergence. 4hr has sell signal and a lower high, ranges contained by the W pivots. No bias.
EJ - D closed positive on a narrow range, making new highs and RSi is not confirming. 4hr higher high higher low in tact and also showing divergence (price to yet confirm). Bias up.
Friday mornings can be volatile so with the mixed signals will be careful on any trades, or just sit out a likely option.
Counter trend falls early in London session did provide buying opportunities in line with bias.
14 Dec
EUR - D closed a doji previous highs respected, 1.3100 proving to be a key level. The failure to go higher is clearly shown on 4hr chart which is showing divergence (price has not yet confirmed), 1hr looking choppy with divergence and its get tight between possible entry and the highs. We seem to have an inverse head and shoulders with 1.3100 the neckline. Bias up, getting an entry might be tricky. There obviously can be fall from 1.3100.
GU - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. The negative close seems to have confirmed the divergence. 4hr has sell signal and a lower high, ranges contained by the W pivots. No bias.
EJ - D closed positive on a narrow range, making new highs and RSi is not confirming. 4hr higher high higher low in tact and also showing divergence (price to yet confirm). Bias up.
Friday mornings can be volatile so with the mixed signals will be careful on any trades, or just sit out a likely option.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 13 Dec
Recap 12 Dec
The up bias played out.
13 Dec
EUR - D pos close and we are approaching the next resistance area 1.3120/40. Had a decent pull back on 4hr which bounced from D pivot (just happens to be 4hr 8 lwma). Higher high higher low flow in tact. Bias up.
GU - D positive close, hit the resistance level. 4hr has signaled sell. Higher high higher low flow in tact but if 1hr fails here would give a lower high on that chart and scalp sell. Overall bias up.
EJ - Looks clear bias up, biggest problem might be getting entry.
The up bias played out.
13 Dec
EUR - D pos close and we are approaching the next resistance area 1.3120/40. Had a decent pull back on 4hr which bounced from D pivot (just happens to be 4hr 8 lwma). Higher high higher low flow in tact. Bias up.
GU - D positive close, hit the resistance level. 4hr has signaled sell. Higher high higher low flow in tact but if 1hr fails here would give a lower high on that chart and scalp sell. Overall bias up.
EJ - Looks clear bias up, biggest problem might be getting entry.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 12 Dec
Recap 11 Dec
The up bias did play out on all pairs.
12 Dec
EUR - Positive D close that stopped on the Feb/Apr resistance level 1.3015. We also have W M3 just above at 1.3025. Bias is up but obviously we can go lower from this proven turn area.
GU - D positive close close to previous high 1.6130. There is hidden divergence in play, price action must confirm (thanks Sunny fx). US session could not take us any higher which raises a little question mark. Asian session support at W R1 1.6108. Bias up but potential to turn 1.6130. There are resistance areas a little higher but reaching them would be good target in line with up bias.
EJ - D positive close approaching previous high 107.90, potential divergence. Bias up obviously we can go lower from the turn area.
The up bias did play out on all pairs.
12 Dec
EUR - Positive D close that stopped on the Feb/Apr resistance level 1.3015. We also have W M3 just above at 1.3025. Bias is up but obviously we can go lower from this proven turn area.
GU - D positive close close to previous high 1.6130. There is hidden divergence in play, price action must confirm (thanks Sunny fx). US session could not take us any higher which raises a little question mark. Asian session support at W R1 1.6108. Bias up but potential to turn 1.6130. There are resistance areas a little higher but reaching them would be good target in line with up bias.
EJ - D positive close approaching previous high 107.90, potential divergence. Bias up obviously we can go lower from the turn area.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 11 Dec
Recap 10 Dec
Bias was down which did not play out.
GU did signal a counter trend buy opportunity with a 4hr engulfing close, higher low at W M2. This halted the 4hr lower high lower low flow. A higher low on 4hr, by definition a multiple candle pattern, showing over many hours price does not want to go lower.
EUR support level 1.2880/W M2 held, 1hr had a higher low following divergence, showing over a 12 hour period that it did not want to go lower.
If you want to go counter trend you need multiple reasons to do so.
11 Dec
EUR - Positive close on D but we are still below the 8 lwma and RSI has not crossed its signal line (but on 50 level). 4hr and 1hr flow now higher low. Bias up.
GU - D higher low engulfing close, 4hr flow now up. Bias up.
EJ - Another D hammer, not moving up with same enthusiasm as EUR. D below 8 lwma and RSI nowhere near to crossing up.
Only time will tell if EUR and GU are going up or if these D moves are a test and we get lower highs going forward. For now the short term flow is up.
Bias was down which did not play out.
GU did signal a counter trend buy opportunity with a 4hr engulfing close, higher low at W M2. This halted the 4hr lower high lower low flow. A higher low on 4hr, by definition a multiple candle pattern, showing over many hours price does not want to go lower.
EUR support level 1.2880/W M2 held, 1hr had a higher low following divergence, showing over a 12 hour period that it did not want to go lower.
If you want to go counter trend you need multiple reasons to do so.
11 Dec
EUR - Positive close on D but we are still below the 8 lwma and RSI has not crossed its signal line (but on 50 level). 4hr and 1hr flow now higher low. Bias up.
GU - D higher low engulfing close, 4hr flow now up. Bias up.
EJ - Another D hammer, not moving up with same enthusiasm as EUR. D below 8 lwma and RSI nowhere near to crossing up.
Only time will tell if EUR and GU are going up or if these D moves are a test and we get lower highs going forward. For now the short term flow is up.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 10 Dec
Recap 7 Dec
Bias was down, currencies fell until a news bounce pushed all pairs up.
10 Dec
The Fri push up did not follow through in Asian session.
EUR - D chart closed with a lower wick, we are below RSI 50 level and below 8 lwma. 4hr on lower high lower low. Bias down.
GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts as EUR, bias down.
Bias was down, currencies fell until a news bounce pushed all pairs up.
10 Dec
The Fri push up did not follow through in Asian session.
EUR - D chart closed with a lower wick, we are below RSI 50 level and below 8 lwma. 4hr on lower high lower low. Bias down.
GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts as EUR, bias down.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 7 Dec
Recap 6 Nov
EUR - A small push up to W M4 1.3079 at London open. It took the interest rate decision and ECB conference for the bias down to play out as expected.
GU and EJ charts were not as clear going into 6th. They did share the same theme, small pushes higher could not follow through for several hours, clear on 4hr charts. Key levels, divergences so enough reason to counter trend sell after the news.
7 Dec
NFP day, like the UK/EUR interest rates days yesterday (and the UK MPC minutes release) are days when I am happy to sit on the sidelines until after the news release.
EUR - We have now had the D engulfing close that we have been patiently waiting for to confirm the down bias from the analysis yesterday morning. Bias remains down.
GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts. Interesting again to see the magnets that are the W pivots. Bias down.
EUR - A small push up to W M4 1.3079 at London open. It took the interest rate decision and ECB conference for the bias down to play out as expected.
GU and EJ charts were not as clear going into 6th. They did share the same theme, small pushes higher could not follow through for several hours, clear on 4hr charts. Key levels, divergences so enough reason to counter trend sell after the news.
7 Dec
NFP day, like the UK/EUR interest rates days yesterday (and the UK MPC minutes release) are days when I am happy to sit on the sidelines until after the news release.
EUR - We have now had the D engulfing close that we have been patiently waiting for to confirm the down bias from the analysis yesterday morning. Bias remains down.
GU and EJ - Essentially the same charts. Interesting again to see the magnets that are the W pivots. Bias down.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Recap + EUR GU EJ 6 Dec
Recap 5 Dec
EUR - The frequently mentioned resistance level of 1.3115/W R2 pivot held. D close negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. 4hr flow flipped to lower high. 1hr lower high lower low clear.
Selling EUR yesterday was counter trend. In general this requires substantially more information than 1 candle on say a 1hr chart to trigger a trade. We would be looking for a confluence of factors from proven support/resistance levels, W pivots, higher time frame divergence, price showing for some several hours that it does not want to advance.
GU - Asian push up did not follow through, W R2 pivot held. D close a doji, we are still above 8 lwma and RSI not yet crossed lower.
EJ - D positive close but again the Asian push up did not follow through. Negative sell divergence on all time frames.
6 Dec
Interest rate day for GU and EUR, could be a day for caution.
EUR - 1hr flow now lower high lower low. We stopped on W R1. Bias down.
GU - D not as convincing for sells as EUR. Price range bound between W R2 and W M4. We could get support at 1.6085, no real bias.
EJ - D clouding the picture as we never followed through Y's morning move up. We might be topping out. I prefer EJ to follow EUR (unless there is some other fundamental Yen story to say otherwise) so would take care buying EJ if EUR falling.
EUR - The frequently mentioned resistance level of 1.3115/W R2 pivot held. D close negative, RSI crossed lower but we are still above 8 lwma. 4hr flow flipped to lower high. 1hr lower high lower low clear.
Selling EUR yesterday was counter trend. In general this requires substantially more information than 1 candle on say a 1hr chart to trigger a trade. We would be looking for a confluence of factors from proven support/resistance levels, W pivots, higher time frame divergence, price showing for some several hours that it does not want to advance.
GU - Asian push up did not follow through, W R2 pivot held. D close a doji, we are still above 8 lwma and RSI not yet crossed lower.
EJ - D positive close but again the Asian push up did not follow through. Negative sell divergence on all time frames.
6 Dec
Interest rate day for GU and EUR, could be a day for caution.
EUR - 1hr flow now lower high lower low. We stopped on W R1. Bias down.
GU - D not as convincing for sells as EUR. Price range bound between W R2 and W M4. We could get support at 1.6085, no real bias.
EJ - D clouding the picture as we never followed through Y's morning move up. We might be topping out. I prefer EJ to follow EUR (unless there is some other fundamental Yen story to say otherwise) so would take care buying EJ if EUR falling.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Recap + 5 Dec EUR GU EJ
Recap 4 Dec
EUR - Bias up played out and 1st target reached 1.3115.
GU also moved higher, EJ struggled.
5 Dec
EUR - Solid D close, 4hr upper wicks probably the reaction to the resistance level 1.3115. There is no doubt as to the direction of 4hr moving average. 4hr and 1hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
GU - D shooting star, 4hr and 1hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
EJ - D closed an inside bar, moved up strongly in Asian session. 4hr 1hr higher high higher low in tact.
EUR - Bias up played out and 1st target reached 1.3115.
GU also moved higher, EJ struggled.
5 Dec
EUR - Solid D close, 4hr upper wicks probably the reaction to the resistance level 1.3115. There is no doubt as to the direction of 4hr moving average. 4hr and 1hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
GU - D shooting star, 4hr and 1hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.
EJ - D closed an inside bar, moved up strongly in Asian session. 4hr 1hr higher high higher low in tact.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
EUR GU EJ 4 Dec
4 Dec
EUR - D positive close. The possible negative divergence was not confirmed by price action. 4hr higher high higher low flow in tact, W pivots containing price.Bias up, targets 1.3115 - 1.3170.
GU - Similar picture, bias up target 17 Oct/1 Nov highs 1.6175.
EJ - Similar picture, bias up. We are on a key resistance level, next targets 108 then 111.
EUR - D positive close. The possible negative divergence was not confirmed by price action. 4hr higher high higher low flow in tact, W pivots containing price.Bias up, targets 1.3115 - 1.3170.
GU - Similar picture, bias up target 17 Oct/1 Nov highs 1.6175.
EJ - Similar picture, bias up. We are on a key resistance level, next targets 108 then 111.
Anatomy of a trading day
GU 3 Dec
Above the 200 ema looking to buy. Avoid the weak pre/early US counter trend move lower marked x. Look for direction set by London to continue.
Above the 200 ema looking to buy. Avoid the weak pre/early US counter trend move lower marked x. Look for direction set by London to continue.
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