Sunday, June 30, 2013

4hr charts W pivots

Posting as usual to show the importance of W pivots and support and resistance levels. Fewer signals than normal this week.





Friday, June 28, 2013

28 June 2013

EUR - We did get a reaction up as mentioned yesterday. D closed a positive inside bar off the support level 1.3000, could not cross RSI or the 8lwma. So as D reversal candles go this would be weak and regarded as counter trend. 4hr RSI had signaled counter buy yesterday but the 4hr and 1hr candles made buys difficult. 1hr flow now higher high higher low. No bias can go either way.  

GU - Fell as per view yesterday. D closed negative with a decent sized lower wick bouncing up from W M1 1.5200. At the moment we are at the June '12 lows/W S1 1.5272. Bias down.

EJ - Had bias down which did not transpire. The 4hr hammer rejecting the move below W M2 127.00 won out. D closed positive 3 bar reversal. Asian session has run 100 pips up already. Bias up.

EURAUD - Had down bias with potential to bounce up from the identified support area 1.3925. D closed a hammer. 4hr had a higher low, 1hr now higher high higher low. Bias up.

AUD - Yesterday had no bias. D closed another shooting star inside candle, the lows from 26th holding. Asia broke the range lower this morning and since retraced up. No bias. 

Thursday, June 27, 2013

27 June 2013

EUR - Yesterdays fall stopped when the move below the key 1.3000 support level failed. The bounce up has not been big overnight, 1hr flow still lower high lower low.  Bias down, of course there can be a reaction up when London/US volumes kick in.

GU - No bias yesterday but that was in hindsight not the best analysis. A D doji on 25th June after a positive close candle on 24 June should have indicated move up is not following through. Yesterday D close large negative 3 bar reversal (i.e. below the previous 2 candle closes), 4hr on lower high lower low flow but showing positive divergence. 1hr has had a higher low following the 4hr divergence so this may have played out already, its W % R has reached over bought levels so in general area to sell again. Bias down.

EJ - Had no bias yesterday. 1hr signaled sells before and after London open with lower high, negative close candles, little no lower wicks, below the 50ema closing right at the extreme of the most recent price action. 4hr showing a big lower wick rejecting a move below W M2 127.00. Bias down today.

EURAUD - D closed negative bouncing from the identified support level 1.3925. Below that next support at 1.3800 the 14 June lows. 4 and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down with potential to bounce from the mentioned support levels.

AUD - Had no bias whilst there was potential to go up there were better/cleaner charts elsewhere. D closed a shooting star, 4hr still not clean either way but we are above RSI 50 level. W pivot 0.9340 could help sellers. No bias can go either way.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

26 June 2013

EUR - D closed negative as per the down bias, we haven't broken Mondays lows but all signals are for down bias to continue.

GU - D closed a doji, 4hr sideways. No bias.

EJ - The sideways drift continues. No bias.

EURAUD - After showing divergence D RSI crossed below its signal line but still above the 50 level. The 4hr and 1hr charts show the struggle to go lower. But for now the short term bias remains down until we get solid confirmation that uptrend is continuing.

AUD - D closed an inside candle doji. The move up has been very weak so far. 4hr is making higher lows but not convinced yet as a buyer. 1hr certainly not giving clean higher low signals. No bias.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

25 June 2013

General comment on yesterday:

Like Friday mornings we treat Monday mornings with similar respect and rarely trade.

EUR - D closed a doji, below 8lwma and RSI below 50 level. The D being below the tight 8lwma is no surprise given the strong move down over 3 days. Yesterdays low was at the 62% retrace (from 29 May low to high). 4hr signaled a counter trend buy with a candle that had a large upper wick and so far no follow through. 1hr appears to be back to lower high. Bias remains down.

GU - D closed positive, 4hr signaled buy and has moved up. Like EUR Asian session move up did not reach the highs so we appear to be on a lower high. Would like the 4hr to flip over to confirm what appears to be a rally in down trend, bias down.

EJ - No convincing D candles yet, 4hr flow on lower high lower low. Not convinced of direction, but in view of 4hr bias down.

EURAUD - D closed a doji making no real progress lower from Fri. 4hr flow on lower high lower low. 1hr looking like it wants to turn up again.

AUD - D closed a doji making no progress lower. After a rally up 1hr also looks like it wants to go lower.

Monday, June 24, 2013

24 June 2013

EUR - Had a small gap down which was closed during Asian session. D down, 4hr down bias down.

GU - The gap down was a little larger and would expect attempt to close. D down, 4hr flow down bias down. 

EJ - Another upper wick on D that stays above 8lwma and RSI above its signal line, seems to have formed a large triangle with some strong upper lower trend lines. Can only wait and see who wins out and trust that good candles lead the way or provide clearer opportunities elsewhere. At the moment the 1hr flow is higher high higher low.

EURAUD - D closed negative after the RSI divergence. RSI has crossed lower but I don't see a D reversal pattern so continuing the view that this is a pause in the very long uptrend. Bias up.

AUD - D stalled at the lows with an inside candle shooting star. 4hr has gone sideways now for 12 candles. Bias down.





Sunday, June 23, 2013

4hr charts and W pivots

As usual just showing these again to highlight the importance of the W pivots, support/resistance levels and the number of good trades typically available in a month (3-4).








Saturday, June 22, 2013

Question on absolute basics of method

I was discussing general trading ideas with someone that is just starting his journey. It often helps to tie up concepts with a concise summary.

It comes down to: 1hr flow in line with D view. Essentially thats it.


If it appears that D view is not working then counter trend rules come into play: proven support and resistance levels and W pivots, when price has proven over a period of several hours that it does not want to continue in trend (specifically not 1 x 1hr candle).  

We really want to see good 1hr flow.

Some examples to expand the idea. Taking my early morning view of 21 June as a basis for discussion. Going into the day I made this general comment:

It does not seem that there were strong Asian buyers for EUR and GU this morning. Makes me think there is chance of move down continuing. We'll see what candles give us.

The general view for EUR was:
EUR - D closed negative with a decent lower wick, RSI has crossed below 50 level. 4hr RSI crossed up but could easily flip over. We are moving up to a support/resistance level around W M2 1.3260 and if we are headed lower that would be a level to watch out for. No bias can go either way.

Going into LO on 4hr we had a shooting star. On 1hr the arrows up show the sequence of higher lows and higher highs i.e. short term uptrend. The x shows where the flow shows first change with a shooting star that makes a lower high, the arrows down show where this one hour flow changed. So if your D view was down you could be looking to enter after the 1hr shooting star marked X as the immediate flow is back in line with the bigger picture. There is another 1hr lower high going into the US session.

So now D down, 4hr shooting star before London open and a 2nd going into US open, 1hr flow confirming move down.




The general view for GU was:
GU -  D closed a hammer, 4hr has signaled up with RSI cross. No bias can go either way.

Long time readers here will know my view is that any potential reversal candle that cannot cross its tight 8lwma has to be treated with caution. The D hammer in itself is a good candle but it was not close to a cross so we could go either way. The 4hr had a series of upper wicks and after London open 1hr had a 3 bar reversal marked x.




The general EURAUD view was:

EURAUD - D positive, 4hr has stalled RSI has crossed lower. A 1hr negative close here would give a lower high sell signal. Counter trend as there is nothing yet for me to believe that this is anything other than a dip in uptrend.

For this discussion I'd like to ignore the rejection of W R2 and the 4hr sell signal when RSI crossed lower. If we are looking for 1hr buy signals in line with D and we want the flow to confirm. It is extremely difficult to find an entry when the flow as shown by the down arrows is so clearly down. We will be waiting for 1hr flow to change up before buying.


 

So in summary we are looking to trade in line with 1hr flow.








Friday, June 21, 2013

21 June 2013

General comment.

As mentioned yesterday often after big D candles there is a pause before moves continue. Yesterday the pairs generally moved during Asia or pre London open. Very little movement after London open into US open.

It does not seem that there were strong Asian buyers for EUR and GU this morning. Makes me think there is chance of move down continuing. We'll see what candles give us.

EUR - D closed negative with a decent lower wick, RSI has crossed below 50 level. 4hr RSI crossed up but could easily flip over. We are moving up to a support/resistance level around W M2 1.3260 and if we are headed lower that would be a level to watch out for. No bias can go either way.

GU -  D closed a hammer, 4hr has signaled up with RSI cross. No bias can go either way.

EJ - D closed a shooting star, RSI crossed up and on 50 level. Its high around 129.90 is lower than the previous swing high on 11th 131.28. 4hr on the other hand is on a higher low RSI crossed lower for sell. Conflicting signals, bias up unless there is a stall and 4hr flips over.

EURAUD - D positive, 4hr has stalled RSI has crossed lower. A 1hr negative close here would give a lower high sell signal. Counter trend as there is nothing yet for me to believe that this is anything other than a dip in uptrend.

AUD - Similar picture to EURAUD except this viewed as a rally in downtrend.





Thursday, June 20, 2013

20 June '13

General comment.

Very little for trend traders yesterday prior to the FOMC statement.

Bernanke's statement strengthened the US$. Now we have to see if the over sized D candle closes have follow through. Often these large D candles are followed by a pause before continuing in trend.

EUR - Engulfing D close bias down.

GU - Yesterdays D RSI cross did follow through lower with the news move. Bias down.

EJ - D RSI cross did follow through higher. Bias up.

EURAUD - Bias up.

AUD - Bias down.






Wednesday, June 19, 2013

19 June

EUR - D closed positive and whilst the flow is up the 1hr chart would not have been easy to trade. D and 4hr RSI showing divergence.

GU - D closed negative with a large lower wick after 3 days failing to follow through higher, RSI crossed lower. 4hr had a 3 bar reversal close going into London open and is now on a lower high lower low. Time will tell if the current support at the 14 June lows will hold. A negative close at or near the Asian lows 1.5620 around London open would suggest more downside.

EJ - D still on a lower high but closed strongly higher. 4hr double top might be reject of the resistance level around 1.2760.

EURAUD - D positive close, 4hr RSI crossed lower. Bias up would expect challenge of last weeks highs 1.4250 area.

AUD - D negative close, 4hr 3 bar reversal double bottom at W M2 also showing positive divergence. Bias still down but perhaps the cracks are starting to show.




Recap 18 June

The 2 pairs that we had a specified bias in line with the D trend both moved nicely, EURAUD up and AUD down. Moves starting around London open, EURAUD had a nice higher low 1hr close, AUD lots of lower wicks.

Of the counter trend moves GU and EJ both had 4hr 3 bar reversals, we were focused on the in trend pairs above.



Tuesday, June 18, 2013

18 June 2013

EUR - D up trend continues to struggle to break through the highs. 4hr shows the multiple tops and the higher lows. If you are buying on the chance of pop higher would need enough space between entry and the highs to get stop to break even if it fails.

GU - Similar story to EUR.

EJ - D down trend struggling to break the lows around 125.25, see 15/16 April. Retaining down bias until D confirms otherwise.

EURAUD - D hammer closed above the previous days range so no surprise the 4hr and 1hr flow now also positive. Bias up.

AUD - D shooting star closed below the previous days so no surprise the 4hr and 1hr flow now down. Bias down.

CAD - Has had 2 D doji closes, yesterday counts as a 3 bar reversal as the close is positive above the previous 2 candle closes (one of the prior 2 having been negative). 4hr RSI has crossed up and just above 50 level. Would think there are better pairs to trade that this at the moment.


Recap 17 June 2013


As mentioned we generally don't trade Monday mornings unless trends appear strong. Did have doubts about some and mentioned EURAUD which had a move up around London open, drifted and then had an inter day higher low on 1hr moving up at US open. AUD was similar with a 1hr move down back to D trend at London open, drifted and then fell after the inter day lower high.   

The 1hr flow for both pairs now back in line with their D trends.





Monday, June 17, 2013

17 June '13

General comments:
- We don't trade UK open on a Monday usually waiting an hour or two for things to settle down. Often waiting for US session particularly if trends are not strong i.e. if time frames conflicting.
- If we have dips/rallies counter to the D trend and the 1hr flow has gone against the D trend we'd be waiting for 1hr flow to resume flow in line with D. This would imply good 4hr candle, 1hr higher high higher low flow resuming. A good example would be EURAUD this morning, we have a base at 1.3840 but I am not yet convinced the flow is back up so being a Monday morning we are not buyers yet. If this is wrong we are happy to live with the missed opportunity.

EUR - D closed with what appears to be a bearish hanging man, RSI has crossed signal line but above 50 level. Above the 8lwma however with a hanging man candle you'd expect that.. 4hr is in a triangle so we have a higher low then a lower high. D has not yet given the 3-7 day reversal pattern I'd like to see. View is that this is a pause in the 4 week uptrend.

GU - D also closed a bearish hanging man. Again we'll see what the reaction is to the area 1.5720-70 the highs from June/July '12. Looking back don't just look at the D wick highs look at the body open/closes. We seem to have divergence showing but price action has not yet confirmed. We had a strong reaction lower on Friday to 1.5720 and after that 4hr is on a higher low (candle still open). Viewing as pause in uptrend and we'll see the reaction at the highs.

EJ - A strong D close at the 125.25 lows where there has been buying. A good candle close should follow through lower. 4hr has had a higher low and a morning star after the divergence (my RSI is set on close). Viewing as counter trend rally.

EURAUD - Friday's positive close candle was weak compared to the strong down move on Thursday. We are above the 20/50 ema's and the RSI 50 level. Also still on higher high higher low flow. 4hr positive divergence at the lows. Viewing as dip in uptrend.

AUD - More conflict between D and 4hr. Viewing for now as rally in downtrend.

CAD - D below the ema's and RSI 50 level, 4hr also. This suggests downside. We have buyers at 1.0134 and above.







Sunday, June 16, 2013

4hr charts W historical pivots

These 4hr charts have the historical W pivots. As usual they show the number of trades that can typically be expected (generally 3 or 4 in a week) although there wasn't as much follow through this week.

The downside is that they do not show the mid pivot levels. If price is hovering in the middle of 2 pivots just consider the mid pivot levels that my other W pivot indicator uses also.