GU EUR 31 Aug

Normally I'd have sell views today but with Jackson Hole conference starting will probably wait until next week. Due to the (big picture) sideways trading over the last 3 months there are numerous downside support levels.


GU - D chart engulfing, lower high, negative close suggests move down. We have tested the W pivot, lower trend line, support areas which may hold.

EUR - D similar chart with negative close lower high. The 1hr flow has flipped over to lower high lower low.

Autochartist at Vantagefx.com

Today EURCAD is highlighted, see the links to Vantagefx.com.

EUR GU 30 Aug

I don't know if the market is waiting for the end of the US holidays or the Jackson Hole conference where Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi are both speaking. Very small ranges yesterday. The analysis did play out however.

EUR - Yesterday morning we said we had the previous days high to contend with. It held and after 2 large upper wicks (2nd a shooting star) for a treble top we had a sell signal on 1hr chart during London morning session. D closed as an inside bar.


GU - Yesterday morning we mentioned we were looking for a buy signal if the 1.5800 D pivot/W pivot support level held, 1hr chart. It did signal during London morning session. D closed a doji.


Would expect another day where engulfing signals should play out even if ranges are small.

Vantagefx.com

Autochartist highlighting AUDNZD today, see the links.

EUR GU 29 Aug

GU - D engulfing close up from the lower trend line, support area. 4hr and 1hr show the lower high lower low flow broken when 1hr intra day higher low formed. D on higher high higher low flow. Normally I'd have view that set ups like this should be buy only today. That is the bias but we are on the resistance level and engulfing negative closes may provide sell opportunities. With the D pivot and W pivot around 1.5800 would prefer to see move lower rejected from there.

EUR similar story. Bias for today is up, we have yesterdays high to contend with and if we trade above there W R1 at 1.2630 as a target. Failure to move higher after such a strong candle yesterday would be immediately suspicious. Good candles should follow through.

EUR 27 Aug intra day higher low as discussed earlier

Whilst I was expecting more a little more down side I did mention this morning that anything can happen, EUR may not go lower. My view was that an intra day double bottom/higher low (changing lower high lower low flow) should be enough to move us higher.

The W pivot held and the 1hr intra day higher low engulfing close pushed us upward.

I also said that the market will do what it wants, you can only control how you react to it. Having a plan in advance helps.

www.vantagefx.com

Autochartist has highlighted the flag on EUR for move down below the level I have in the previous post. Basically to the next proven turn area. Interesting and worth a read.

Can that be the level we turn from and not 1.2450, of course it can. Its also possible it doesn't stop there or for that matter we don't even get there. Anything can happen. Its always worth reading other points of view and comparing their analysis to your own. Can you learn something, did you miss something?

The market will do what it wants, you cannot control that. All you can do is control what you do.

GU EUR 28 Aug

GU D is having a strong pull back after its move up, still on higher high higher low flow. We are resting at very strong resistance levels from last few months and lower trend line. 4hr and 1hr both have strong lower high lower low flow. Selling here would need great care reducing risk as soon as possible due to the potential for a move up. A failed move lower and intra day double bottom/higher low on 1hr should be enough to move up, if not today then going forward. Failure to move up from such a strong resistance area would be very interesting.

EUR charts a very similar story except the potential support area is around 1.2425-50.

GU EUR 27 Aug

GU - Two strong negative closes on D. 4hr and 1hr show the lower high lower low flow. We are on the lower wicks from the move up Apr 2012 and the W pivot. Just below we have the resistance level 1.5770/50. So whilst bias down based on recent price action there are lots of places to move up from.

EUR - D negative close, 4hr and 1hr on lower high lower low flow. I don't see any strong historical support/resistance levels so would expect more downside.

So its sells today until good candles (1hr higher lows) suggest otherwise.   

EUR GU summary

As mentioned this morning the 4hr did flip over for a potential sell. 1hr intra day lower high. We got a signal at close of 9am candle chart time (8am gmt) 1hr chart, see red line down. Our price action indicator clearly saying sell. GU was not as clean with lots of lower wicks, made EUR the better choice.

Other currencies

Dima Chernovolov is highlighting CADCHF signal from autochartist. Autochartist is free with vantagefx live accounts, see the link on the right.

EUR 24 Aug

Upper wick on yesterdays close. 4hr higher high higher low flow still in tact. 1hr price jumps horrible yesterday and we did well to avoid entries and getting chopped out. 1hr higher high higher low also in tact.

Both 4hr and 1hr are looking like flipping over possibly giving counter trend sell signal. After such a strong move up over last few days counter trend retrace has to be expected. Bias still up until D gives clear sell signal.

GU 24 Aug

Negative D close yesterday which can follow through lower or of course can be dip in uptrend. Previously identified support level and W R3 may hold. 1hr flow appears to be on lower high. 

 Good candles can provide opportunities to buy or sell.

www.vantagefx.com

Dima Chernovolov has done an update on EURCAD today.

EUR 23 Aug

Again D chart signaled buy on 20 Aug. 4hr signaled counter trend sell yesterday until the trend resumed see the red line + green arrow up. 1hr confirmed see red line green arrow up. We had up bias yesterday which played out once all time frames fell into place.

Bias up today, as GU we could get counter trend move down after some the moves up. I don't see a resistance level until around 1.2630-50. 1hr higher high higher low flow still clearly in tact.

GU 23 Aug

We may be at a resistance level going back to Nov 2011.

I am working on a price action methodology (RSI no longer used on this not even for divergence). Entries the same 1hr and 5 min higher lows/lower highs.

The indicator is not on the D chart but it would have signaled up on 20 Aug, so for the last 2 days the focus on buying.

Yesterday we said up bias again, the 4hr signaled up on 22 Aug at 00:00 with no sell signals. With trend we can go with D + 1hr signal/flow, counter trend we would want more than 1hr signal alone. From 1hr we would be focused on signals that confirm the higher time frame view i.e. buys.

Bias up, after strong move up we can have a counter trend retrace though.

GU 22 Aug

GU 1hr chart showing the current higher high higher low flows.

www.vantagefx.com

Dima Chernovolov analysis on AUDNZD today, looks like a nice set up.

EUR 22 Aug

Comments from Germany were EUR positive and the upward bias yesterday proved correct. The W pivots still containing the moves. The recent range is now clearly broken and 1hr flow is higher high higher low.

If this is just an upward reaction or the start of a trend remains to be seen. The COT data shows the big dogs are increasing their short positions. They have big pockets and patience so it isn't over yet.

See the links for Ralph Shell COT and go to articles, see "Euro rallies on outbreak of optimism". Almost sounds like a stronger EUR is a disease you don't want to get caught with.

So whilst the 1hr flows are up will have an upward bias again, however an engulfing close, intra day lower high would be a sell opportunity.

GU charts show same picture, upper range broken on D, W pivots containing price, 1hr higher high higher low flow.

www.vantagefx.com, Ralph Shell COT

Dima Chernovolov chart pattern is on USDHKD today.

Ralph Shell posted an article that the big dogs have added to their EUR shorts, the question begs then how long this move up (although still range bound) can last. I have resistance levels at 1.2360 and 1.2425/50. The reaction to them will be interesting. See the link to Ralph's COT articles.

GU EUR 21 Aug

The 4hr charts show again how the SR levels and W pivots contained the moves yesterday.

I am biased towards move up today but there is always the chance to sell good 1hr candles.