Saturday, January 21, 2012

Perfect set up




Mrs V is no longer a fan of ej and she asked for au to go up (watches 3 currencies).

This is about as good a set up as you'll get. Trend is clear, D chart rsi crossed up and we are above 50 level. 1hr retrace and move up on rsi above 50. 5 min higher low in trend (short term as shown by the 5 min ema's and in line with long term D chart view).

Nice set up, she wasn't in front of the computer at the time.

3rd trade of day


As mentioned often this pre US open sideways chop or slightly higher low is a counter trend/London session fake out. Mrs V sold the 2b exited +19 (20 pip bank Hall of Fame happy).

2nd trade of day


Trade 2, nice retrace and reject of 2925/D pivot. Little/no lower wick cross of 8 lwma, normally a safe trade in trend. Unfortunately exited at BE after target not reached.

1hr set up into trend at possible turn area




Daily identified this area as a possible R level. 1hr showing divergence with a doji. price went below the Asian S level. Nice lh little/no lower wick, out just shy of +20.

MA's a mess but ....................



Our other basic trade when the ma's are turning is to trade the lh back into main trend. Here the lh is clear but she didn't think the 1hr candle was quite a good enough set up.

25 ish pip retrace to 50 psych level. Mrs v took this hl exiting just before the news. Solid close little/no upper wick candle crossing the 8 lwma.

Picture perfect

Not in front of computer for these pity.

Overall euro in downtrend, ma's perfectly aligned, 25-35 pip retraces with cross of 8 lwma. 5 min lower highs entry candles all with little/no lower wick.

5 min moving averages

We tried to get an easy visual for Mrs V to verify most trades. To all intents and purposes she is a newbie trader. She has traded on her own for a few weeks only.

The easy visuals we came up with were based on rsi above/below 50 for trend on higher time frames. Then she looks for good angle on 5 min ma's. Using 8 lwma, 21 ema, 96 lwma. The latter is to approx the 1hr 8 lwma. That ma is standard on all charts.

For example if rsi below 50 on daily but had nice reversal candle she would consider buys (as trend could reverse) or sells (selling into rally in downtrend). Other than that focus would be on selling where D rsi below 50.

If the ma's on 5 min are not angled and aligned correctly then she has to see a good 1hr set up candle to resume D trend. So she would be prepared to trade against the 5 min ma's but 1hr must have shown itself to give strong indication of resumption of trend.

I hope recent posts are clear on this.

Cross of 8lwma in trend

Of course you cannot trade every cross of 8lwma you'll get chopped to death. In trend however its a reasonable trade in itself.

Combined with some other basics (eur and gu) 25-35 pip retraces between psych levels (00, 25, 50, 75) and pivots to resume the trend are decent risk trades.

I'd also be careful going counter trend in and around the London and US opens. For US open see below for weak counter trend moves.




Weak US pre/early session

The post below refers to weak pre US moves.

We are very careful to trade against the overall trend and the trend of the day from weak pre/early US session moves. Small 1hr hesitation candles that feature on 5 min as small higher lows (in this case). They often fail and either have a 2b entry or lower high (in the case below in down move) to resume trend of day.

Different day same story.

Mrs V wasn't in front of computer for big move down. 1hr doji in London session, some perfect lower highs followed.

She ignored the weak early US session counter trend higher low as per our rules and got the nice 2b re-entry back into trend. Out for just short of +20 when it didn't follow through.

She unfortunately couldn't stay in front of computer for the later follow through sells.



Mrs V wasn't in front of computer for big move down, shoulder again.

Some recent trades

Some of Mrs V's recent trades. Shoulder better but still far from 100%.
Her first trade of year. She missed the earlier lower high moves which are pretty clear.

Entry and after pic's shown. She exited at 50 level for +20.

Anyway the ema's are clear. 1hr had a large hammer at Y's high. Massive divergence at the double top. Just a great set up and pic perfect 5 min lower highs.

She couldn't trade longer for the follow ups, at that time shoulder was quite bad.