Saturday, June 7, 2014

Not all wicks are created equal - EURAUD

The lower wick on EURAUD D chart shows a clear rejection of the move below the support area 1.4600. On Friday we followed this up with a large doji. However we are still below the D 8lwma, below the RSI 50 level and RSI has not crossed up.

I am not convinced by any candle that cannot cause a close the other side of 8lwma. Could this be the start of a move up, of course. We are possibly 2 days (lower wick and the doji) into the 3-7 day reversal pattern we typically look for in a change of direction.

The 4hr shows the higher low and RSI cross up, but we are still below the 50 level and the upper trend line has not been broken. I haven't shown the lower trend line that forms the triangle.

Either way the flow needs to confirm next week.



Trade of the week

EURAUD - On 2 June price moved up into the identified resistance area 1.4730 and closed with a large upper wick. The 1hr chart is shown but entry was taken off 15 min after a 2b/evening star/3 bar reversal of the high. Exited at the lows of the recent range for +78.

News in the US session took price down to W M1 1.4514. Something is going right when the biggest disappointment in the week is an exit for +78.




4hr charts W pivots

As usual the 4hr charts show the importance of the W pivots (please note this historical pivot indi does not show the mid pivots), support and resistance levels and the number of significant moves that can be expected in a week (2-5).