Weekly charts

EUR - An engulfing negative close suggests more downside with the next major target around 1.2650.

GU - Stopped at a proven support/resistance level. Good positive candle closes should follow through higher. We will have to watch next week for the reaction.

EJ - Negative close certainly suggests lower.

Obviously a weekly candle hides a lot and there will be many trend trades from the 1hr flow and counter trend trades in terms of rules also.

4hr charts W Pivots

As usual showing the 4hr charts to show the importance of  W pivots, support/resistance levels and also that generally there will be 2-4 moves in a week.

Support/resistance trading

These are our counter trend items to consider, we want over whelming additional information such as:

- Proven support/resistance levels.
- W pivots.
- Divergence on higher time frames.
- Price action proving it does not want to progress for hours, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes.
- Psych levels eg round numbers

In addition to the right kind of price action on 15 min, double tops/bottoms , higher lows/lower highs, evening/morning star patterns, engulfing closes.

The EJ 1hr chart from Thursday, quite a good example of support/resistance trading.

- Proven support level. 120.00 can clearly be seen as a support level from 25th.
- W S2 at 119.82
- Divergence on 1hr
- Price stalling around that general level for 3 days 

Whilst we did not take the counter trend buy, the above information was good reason to exit the trend sell for 60 pips.

Recap 28 Mar, good example move in line with bias then counter trend

EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down.
Result: Move down in line with bias around London open. Previous days low held, decent bounce higher.

GU - Small D negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down.
Result: Did move down but no real follow through lower from the previous weak D close.

EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.
Result: A nice move down around London open in line with bias. A big doji on 1hr with divergence at the recent lows signaled a move up. 

EUR GU EJ 28 Mar

Not sure if the big boys will have today as their effective quarter end with the holidays coming up. A performance bonus based on profits could be improved if positions are stretched at the close. Would have to think for EUR and GU that would be more downside.

EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down.

GU - Small negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down.

EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.

Recap 27 Mar, EUR bounce from key level

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.
Result: The idea of the weaker bounce from a key level, bounce up in this case, played out. W M1 failed down bias played out nicely.

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.
Result: Down bias played out.

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.
Result: The upper resistance levels held, down bias played out.

 

EUR GU EJ 27 Mar

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.

EUR GU EJ 26 Mar

We will have to see what the further reaction is to the decision to have private investors in Cyprus having bank deposits over 100,000 Euro's take a massive hit to save the banks? Surely a further flight to safety if you have money in a country with a risky economy i.e. southern Europe.

EUR - D engulfing close that couldn't break below the March lows (after a 170 pip run down no problem there). Trend resumed, bias down.

GU - D negative close that could not get a cross of RSI's signal line or the 8 lwma. A negative close on 1hr would be another low high. Whilst the D candle is not convincing 1hr bias down for now.

EJ - D engulfing negative close. 4hr on lower high lower low, 1hr had a higher low in Asian session overnight. That seems to be failing on the candle currently open. A D candle as good as that should follow through lower even if not at the pace of yesterday. Bias down.

Recap 25 Mar, EUR GU lower high following divergence

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.
Result: 1.3050/W R1 held, a double top going into London open. The 1hr lower high that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.
 
GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.
Result: The resistance level held. 1hr lower high going into London open that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.
Result: Bias up did not play out. The 1hr lower high before and after London open saw the flow change and EJ followed the EUR down.

EUR GU EJ 25 Mar

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.

Recap 22 Mar

EUR - Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.
Result: Bounce up from support/W M1 combination.
 
GU - Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.
Result: Bias up played out.
 
EJ - I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.
Result: Bounce up from the lows/W S3 combination.

 

4hr charts with W pivots

Support and resistance levels and W pivots, their importance yet again very clear.

EUR GU EJ 22 Mar

EUR - D negative close back into trend RSI below 50 level, daily lower high lower low flow intact, price stopped at support level. 4 hr strong rejection of the W S1 level 1.2954 with upper wicks. W M1 provided support during the day at 1.2894. Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.

GU - D positive close at the top of the recent range also recent resistance level 1.5160, RSI above 50 level/ma,  D higher low formed. 4 hr move up stalled at the resistance level from late Feb/early March 1.5180-1.5200 with large upper wicks. RSI flat but above 50 level. 1 hr higher flow intact but move up appears to be weakening. Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.

EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma.
4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down  forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.

Recap 21 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.
A lower fall on 1hr going into London open, after that chopped around in a small range.

GU - View was: D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.
A higher low on 1hr going into London open might have been difficult to trade with the upper wicks.

EJ - View was: D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.
The 1 day up 1 day down continued. 4hr evening star pattern at W M2, 1hr lower high into London open signaled the fall.

Ralph Shell article

See the link COT reports by Ralph Shell, go to articles, browse articles for Endless Troubles in Eurozone - Now Cyprus. Where he discusses the problem and his EUR sell area.

EUR GU EJ 21 Mar

EUR - D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. Ralph Shell has posted an article (will post details shortly) and he is looking at the weekend gap to get closed with a move to 1.3050. Anyway D RSI has crossed but below 50 level, we could not break the D 8lwma. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.

GU - D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.

EJ - D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.