31 July 2013

EUR - D closed a doji range bound between 1.3300 and the W pivot 1.3235. 4hr and 1hr charts are a mess. Whilst things may become clearer as the day moves on there have to be better pairs than this to trade.

GU - D closed negative following the evening star pattern. 4hr chart made a low, 1hr on lower high lower low. I have the 1 June '12 low as a resistance level at 1.5266 just below the D pivot, W S1 at 1.5280 both places that we could move up to and then look to sell. If we get that high of course. Bias down.

EJ - D closed a shooting star making no progress lower. A base has formed at 129.85, the 1hr upper wicks are making marginally lower highs. Retaining down bias but this can go either way and would need much better candles to consider a trade.

EURAUD - D closed positive after the big news jump on 30th. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative at the lows. Bias down, the trick is to get an entry that you can live with given the inevitable bounces above 0.9000.

 

30 July 2013

EUR - We did retrace lower as mentioned and now have a D evening star pattern, albeit weak as RSI has not crossed its signal line lower and we are above the 8lwma. The 4hr negative divergence might have played out. 1hr is on lower high. If this is a pause in uptrend on D we would need a 1hr higher low to confirm, this is forming pre Frankfurt open. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed negative for an evening star pattern off a proven resistance level (July '12 low, 11/12 Apr high), RSI crossed lower and below 8lwma. Price failed to go higher for a week so everything appears in place for a trend change. 4hr 3 bar reversal off the highs yesterday with the negative close. 1hr has made a lower high and lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D closed negative but a small range day. 4hr RSI crossed up yesterday and we have positive divergence, this may have played out with a move up in Asian session. Approaching yesterdays high and the support/resistance area 130.50, this would be an area where a move back down may happen.

EURAUD - D closed positive on the back of a move up around London close. from there a 200 pip move up on AUS news. The next resistance level I have is 1.4900. Bias up.

AUD - D closed negative for an evening star pattern. Big drop on the AUD news, bias down.

29 July 2013

EUR - D closed a doji after moves during the London and US morning sessions failed to break Thursdays high. 4hr showing negative divergence. Whilst a retracement lower would be no surprise viewing this as pause in uptrend until D gives some kind of confirmation (engulfing negative close, RSI cross, close below 8lwma).

GU - Very similar picture to EUR.

EJ - D closed negative, 4hr lower high lower low flow, bias down.

EURAUD - D closed negative but the move below Thursdays low was quickly rejected. D RSI flat and we are above the 8lwma. 4hr RSI flat, we can either be on a higher low or lower high depending on how we close. Whilst the uptrend has struggled at 1.4400 The Thur/Fri move lower has arguably been the weakest attempt lower. A 4hr negative close would be a sell signal but I suspect bias up.

AUD - A solid positive close on Thurs and the move about its high on Fri had little follow through. A 4hr negative close would be a sell signal. No bias still range bound and can go either way.

   

4hr charts W pivots

As usual showing the 4hr chart with W pivots. The 3 main reasons being their importance either as targets or to trade prices reaction to them, support and resistance levels and the number of trades that you can typically expect (3 or 4 good trades, generally maximum 5).

  

26 July 2013

EUR - UK morning news pushed EUR down to a previously identified support area, Mar/Apr lows. From there moved up in line with bias, continuing higher into the US close at the Dec '12 highs/W R2. 4hr on higher high, showing negative divergence. Asian session did not break the high which is not uncommon. Bias up.

GU - Similar story to EUR. Positive D close, 4hr made a higher high and showing negative divergence. We have a resistance area at 1.5400 where there is potential to fall, however bias up.

EJ - D closed negative, reacting to the identified resistance area 132.50 with divergence, followed through lower in Asian session. 4hr yesterday a horrible chart with numerous lower wicks. Worth noting from the 1hr chart, the candles that did follow through lower yesterday all had little/no lower wicks. Bias down.

EURAUD - Bias up did not follow through, moved lower from the mentioned W R1/June highs. Range bound trading continues (1.4450 - 1.4200) and we can go either way in the range.

AUD - Range bound trading continues for now the range has narrowed (0.9300 - 0.9120), we can go either way in the range.

25 July 2013

EUR - D closed negative after London open move up, RSI is flat and we are above the 8lwma so nothing convincing yet for change in D trend. 4hr still on higher high higher low after giving a counter trend sell signal with RSI cross lower. 1hr made a lower high in US session yesterday and now on a higher low. Looks like dip in uptrend, bias up.

GU - D closed negative after the hanging man at the end of run and 4hr RSI divergence/cross lower for scalp sell. Now we have an evening star pattern but D RSI has not crossed lower and we are still above the 8lwma, so nothing convincing yet. 4hr looks like its made lower highs to me, 1hr on higher lows. Lots of conflicting information staying on bias up.

EJ - After the D doji, 4hr did indeed make a higher low to resume uptrend. D closed positive. 4hr back on higher high higher low. Bias up, can react lower from the resistance area 132.50.

EURAUD - D closed positive stalling at W R1/June highs. Obviously we can react lower from here but bias remains up.

AUD - D engulfing negative close from the 0.9300 resistance level that has been upper end of range for a couple of weeks now. Bias down.

 

24 July 2013

EUR - D closed positive above the 11 July high on another low range day, we are above our moving averages and RSI 50 level. 4hr upper wicks but flow higher high higher low. 1hr has made a lower high in Asian session probably on the AUD CPI news. Bias up but there are signs that the cracks are beginning to show and the move above the 11 July spike may yet be a fake.

GU - D closed with what looks like a hanging man at the end of move up (see Candlesticker in useful links on blog, bearish patterns) failing to break the resistance level again (12 July 2012 low, bodies high 11, 12 Apr 2013). 4hr showing divergence and RSI has crossed lower, showing potential for lower high following divergence. Sells here short term until D turns.

EJ - D closed a doji after a negative close 3 bar reversal, obvious indecision. 4hr made a lower high (following divergence which did follow through lower for a scalp sell) and now possibly forming a higher low. Should this confirm then bias up back into D trend.

EURAUD - Massive reaction to AUD CPI news. In the bigger picture we are going sideways for the last week between 1.4170 and 1.4330. Whilst I think up no bias until after effects of the news are clear.

AUD - D closed positive at the 0.9300 resistance level. Also a massive reaction to the AUD news. I think down but no bias until the after effects of news are clear.

 

23 July 2013

EUR - D closed higher with an upper wick. 4hr higher low cycle, also showing an upper wick. Price action is not the same as 11 July when the Asian session gave us a big upper wick. Bias up with potential to move lower from the highs.

GU - D closed positive at a potential resistance area from 11 April 2013. Bias up.

EJ - D closed negative 3 bar reversal. 4hr lower high after divergence has played out. Can either be a dip in uptrend or start of reversal, no bias can go either way.

EURAUD - D closed negative, 3 bar reversal, the lows from 19 July holding. 4hr is ranging, 1hr flow still clearly down. Bias down with potential to move higher from support.

AUD - Positive D close, 4hr on higher high higher low but seems a struggle to go higher. Bias up with potential to move lower from the upper resistance level.

22 July 2013

EUR - D closed positive, 4hr on higher low flow. Approaching the highs from 16/17 July. Bias up but we can move lower from the highs.

GU - D closed positive. Approaching the highs from 3/4 July. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

EJ - D closed positive. The move above 132.50 on 22 May rejected strongly. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

EURAUD - D closed positive but could not break Thursdays high. Bias up but we can move lower from the resistance level.

AUD - D closed a shooting star but could not break Thursdays low. Bias down but we can move higher from the support level.

4hr charts W pivots

In general not much follow through for a few days this week after some strong Asian moves.

19 July 2013

EUR - D closed with another hammer, price did not go down after the lower high following 4hr divergence. Moves below 1.3100 have rejected on 17th, yesterday at London open and this morning in Asian session. Whilst the D is above the RSI 50 level and has a hammer it all seems a struggle to go up. The upper resistance area 1.3180 is approaching. Fairly clean 1hr trend line break and higher low set up Asian move. Bias is up but just does not seem convincing.

GU - D closed a hammer, 4hr still on higher low with the weeks high 1.5266 and W R1 approaching. Bias is up but like EUR just does not seem convincing.

EJ - D strong positive close, 4hr on higher high higher low. Bias up.

EURAUD - D closed positive with a 3 bar reversal but after the Asian/London open push there was no more upside for the day. That also is not inspiring confidence in move up today. There is a small hurdle at 1.4310, bias up.

AUD - After the doji D closed negative but it was all done in Asian session and no follow through lower during the London/US session. 4hr RSI crossed up and flat on 50 level. 1hr double bottom with divergence.

18 July 2013

Bernanke is testifying again this afternoon.

EUR - I amended my resistance level to the body highs for Apr and May 1.3178 which held. D closed negative with a lower wick. 4hr RSI crossed lower and 1hr flow now on lower high. Since the big upper wick on 11 July its 4 days later and that high hasn't been challenged. That does not seem to be a bullish market to me? In view of 4hr short term bias down, only time will tell if this is the start of a big move.

GU - D closed a large body doji. 4hr showing negative divergence from last weeks highs, RSI crossed lower but the candle has not yet closed. Its Wed and the only big move was yesterdays news event that has not followed through. Will be looking short term for 4hr to set up sells until D confirms.

EJ - D closed a hammer above every charts moving averages and RSI 50 levels. We can react lower from the April high overall bias up.

EURAUD - D closed a doji in big up trend. 4hr positive divergence, RSI crossed up and now a higher low. Bias up.

AUD - D closed a doji in down trend. 4hr negative divergence, 3 bar reversal, RSI crossed lower. Bias down.

17 July 2013

With the MPC Bank Rate votes this morning and Bernanke testifying this afternoon care needed. 

EUR - D closed positive above 50 level, 4hr on higher high higher low. We are approaching an area where we sold off strongly last week and can react lower. Bias up.

GU - D closed positive. 4hr made higher high with price contained by the W pivot 1.5045 and W M3 1.5162, RSI has signaled a sell on cross lower. We are approaching area where we sold off from last week, even if 4hr has higher low that could present a problem. Bias up.

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr sideways. Unless things get dramatically clearer by London open I do not see much in these charts.

EURAUD - D closed negative, 4hr lower high following divergence did sell off until US session where we have drifted sideways. D suggests down, 4hr hinting up.

AUD - D closed positive. 4hr RSI has signaled a sell and 1hr is potentially on a lower high. Approaching the 0.9300 area where we sold off last week. Bias up.