Autochartist at Vantagefx.com

Autochartist is highlighting the rising wedge on AUDNZD. See the links to Daily Forex update.

Also see the report Markets reverse, Stoks, Euro and AUD rally 31 October 2012.

Recap + EUR GU 31 Oct

Recap 30 Oct

Bias was down. EUR did not go lower had a pos 1hr close with divergence (also showing div on 4hr) from the previously mentioned multiple lows. GU also did not go lower but we did have a higher low engulfing pos close. So there was some indication that the flow had switched. GU in particular often has some follow through if a candle closes beyond the immediate range. In this case we also closed above the 32 lwma (4hr 8 lwma).

31 Oct - With the US markets likely to be closed again I have no bias.

EUR - 1hr suggests up. The push through the W pivot was immediately rejected. For now we have stopped at the W pivot. Overnight we did not break the range higher (again not unusual for Asian markets to respect ranges) so we could just as easily go up or down. Looking for engulfing closes that break the immediate range as set ups.

GU - The topping out looks even clearer than EUR. Again looking for engulfing 1hr candles either way.

Autochartist at Vantagefx.com

Autochartist is highlighting the rising wedge on CHFJPY, see the links, autochartist is free with live accounts.

Recap and EUR GU 30 Oct

Recap 29 0ct - Both pairs fell as per bias. The US session did not do much for EUR probably due to hurricane Sandy.

30 Oct

EUR - Negative close day, 4hr chart showing the multiple bottom. Bias down.

GU - D evening star type pattern (Pos close, doji, neg close), 4hr stopped at W M2, on lower high lower low. Bias down.   

Autochartist at Vantagefx.com

Autochartist highlighting the rising wedge pattern on EURJPY. Autochartist is free with live accounts, see the Vantagefx.com links.

EUR GU 29 Oct

29 Oct

EUR - D hammer but we are still below 50 on RSI and below the 8lwma. 4hr has crossed up on RSI but we are still below 50 and on lower high lower low. Bias down.

GU - D did not follow through higher on Fri after 2 strong pos closes so we still have the potential for lower high lower low. 4hr has negative engulfing close. Bias down.

Recap 26 Oct

Recap 26 Oct

EUR bias was down as mentioned on Fri morning. 1hr 32lwma was angled down (i.e. 4hr 8lwma) price rejected move up with a shooting star for a decent sell opportunity.

EUR 4hr chart shows again how important the W pivots have been this week.

Recap 25 Oct + EUR GU 26 Oct

Recap 25 Oct - GU bias was up. 1hr 8 and 32 lwma's good angle up, engulfing pos closes confirmed the signal. EUR was no bias but the pos close, shooting star, doji then negative engulfing close rejecting the W pivot was a good sell signal.

26 Oct

EUR - D neg close, RSI below 50. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level. There could be a move up from the support level. Bias down.

GU - D pos close. 4hr and 1hr flow on higher high higher low. However the US morning session did not push up any higher so there is obviously the potential for 4hr to flip over to signal a sell. If GU was still to go up and the two biggest markets open at the same time couldn't do it, then alarm bells should start ringing. No bias either way i.e. will trade good engulfing closes.

These highly correlated pairs are moving in opposite directions for now, that shouldn't last too long.

Autochartist at Vantagefx

Autochartist is featuring EURGBP today, expectation is further fall. See the link then scroll below Daily Currency Highlights.

Recap + EUR GU 25 Oct

Recap 24 Oct - EUR fell as expected. GU did not and gave 2 x 1hr higher low buy opp's.

25 Oct.

EUR - D hammer but we are still below its 8lwma and RSI has not crossed up as yet. 4hr RSI has crossed up but we are still on lower high lower low - just. 1hr flow seems to have turned up. No bias either way today.

GU - D engulfing close suggests up but we are still on lower high lower low. Bias up, there is a resistance area below the W pivot 1.6058. An engulfing neg close should give a scalp sell. Would prefer price to flip below 1hr 32 lwma for sells.

Recap + EUR GU 24 Oct

Recap 23 Oct - EUR lower high, neg engulfing close, below RSI 50 level on 4hr set up move down.

24 Oct.

EUR - D lower high, neg engulfing close. 4hr and 1hr lower high lower low flow in tact. Bias down.

GU - Essentially same picture as EUR.

Recap

The bias down did follow through lower.

Recap + 19 Oct

Recap - View Y was that both pairs were sending mixed signals. We ended up choppy until late in the day. I have looked at a couple of sites and cannot see reports on GU's fall at close of US session.

EUR - D neg close but RSI has not yet crossed and above 50 level. 4hr neg close and below 50, 1hr now on lower high lower low but the moves are not convincing. Overall bias down but the D's has not fully signaled yet. We have the major support levels from Feb-Apr '12 coming into play also.

GU - D engulfing neg close should follow through lower. We are at the W pivot and a support level which could provide a bounce. Bias down.

Recap + EUR GU 18 Oct

Recap - EUR bias was up on 17th and it went up a small amount. GU up also no bias either way.

EUR - D is up but the London and US sessions were weak. We are at the resistance level mentioned Y. 4 hr has flipped over to short term sell signal. Can go either way today, so no bias.

GU -  D is up but US session did not follow through on move higher. 4hr flipped over for a sell. 4hr is on higher high higher low still so if we do get a sell today could just be a scalp sell and chance to buy dip in rally. Would prefer to sell D neg close, 1hr flip to lower high lower low to confirm move down.

Recap + EUR GU 17 Oct

Recap 16 Oct - Bias was up which played out from London open.

EUR - D closed up, 4 and 1hr higher high higher low flow in place. We are in an area of major potential resistance (Oct '11 lows, high Sep 12). Bias up but we could obviously sell off from this general area.

GU - D closed up, 4 and 1hr on higher low higher high flows. However we are on a resistance level marked on D chart, multiple tops on 4hr and 1hr with divergence. No bias can go either way. 

COT by Ralph Shell

See the link on the right COT by Ralph Shell and go to articles. See Speculators Reduce Their USD Currency Shorts-COT Report 10 09 2012, large specs stopped the liquidation of their short position in the euro.  Instead the large spec reduced longs and increased shorts. 

That is not something I expected, the market can go up despite this but signs of upper resistance 1hr flow reverting to lower high lower low will be strong sell signals.

Recap + EUR GU 16 Oct

Recap - Whilst both pairs stopped at their first support areas mentioned (1.2888 and 1.6024) and EUR signaled a move up with a nice hammer Mrs V was not happy with the down bias. With the conflicting info it should have been no bias Y.

EUR - D crossed up and above 50 RSI, 4hr also. 1hr higher high higher low flow in tact. Over night Y's high held, but that's not unusual. Against that we have a D doji failing to go higher which can be a problem. Bias up but another failure at 1.2980 and neg close could signal move down.

GU - Same picture as EUR with Y's high at 1.6080.