Friday, May 6, 2011

Wait 20 mins and try again

Wait 20 minutes and try again. I picked up this simple idea from a fellow trader at forex factory. When higher lows or lower highs are running nicely a move will be followed by a short period of consolidation before moving again, 20 minutes or so.

There are exceptions of course. When price moves aggressively away from a moving average (chart has 8 lwma and 20 ema) due to news etc a longer period of consolidation may be required.

The gu 15 min chart shows that idea clearly. When price consolidates back to the ma's and gives a good candle (solid engulfing close little/no lower wick or shooting stars) the moves down continue. The x's show the areas where quick moves away from the 8 lwma need consolidation far exceeding 20 mins before continuing.

The eur chart has one strong news move away from the lwma. Takes around 60 mins to show an engulfing negative close and thereafter hugs the ma.



None Farm Payroll

Forgot this morning on NFP days the best chance for a trade is often very early in and around Frankfurt open ie 1hr before London open. So probably no trading for me today until that news is well out of the way.

London Close trade

With the US$ on a tear yesterday after news I didn't even try for a London close trade.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Interest rate day

With interest rate decisions in UK and Europe not normally a day I like to trade, it can get very choppy. Might just be a good idea to take the day off.

London Close trade

Yesterday AUDUSD set up and triggered for 25+ pips with virtually no draw down again. I was making dinner with Mrs V sick and didn't take. This is just to build a record.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Todays trade

Fairly straight forward trade. 1hr headed up we are above its 8 lwma, 15 min had a small inside bar but this 5 min hl had taken that out to upside. 15 min had good angle up on ma's. 5 min higher low, little/no upper wick after price pulls back to ma's. Move up from daily pivot/25 psych level, high volume point of control area.

Ralph Shell report

Ralph Shell has posted a new report on his expectations for EUR see EUR WHERE TO FROM HERE and go to the articles page.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

COT reports

For all the info click here GET COT REPORTS and go to articles page.

From Ralph Shell. Specs continued their aggressive short stance in the USD. The net long something else and short the USD was 332,394 contracts, and it would have been even higher, except for the big short position by specs in the yen. Specs were long a little more than 98k in both the C$ and the A$, but they were also net long the euro by a large 83.8k contracts. While some of the indicators show that the dollars slide might be due for a correction, as long as the money keeps flowing into the market, a contrary USD long will be costly.

(Authors note: Thanks for the prayers and wishes from many of you while I spent 25 days confined to a hospital bed recovering from pneumonia. My strength is slowly returning but I have yet to find my nerve to enter these volatile markets.)

US Dollar Index: The OI increased only modestly during the period. Large specs continue to dominate the trade in this small market, They remain short the DI but did reduce their net position as they bought 3,066 contracts. Small specs are modest longs in the DI.
Euro (EUR/USD):The increase in the OI by over 18k was due primarily to commercials increasing both their long and short positions, and by a 7.4k increase in spreading. This is assumed to be option activity. Large specs are good sized longs on a 3 to 1 ratio, and added a minor amount to their positions. Small specs are long and added a little over 4k contracts to both the long and the short side.
British Pound Sterling (GBP/USD):The specs added to their long positions in the pound, with the little guy active buying 4.3k and selling out 1.9k of their shorts. Both size specs are over a 2.5 ratio of longs to shorts. Commercials are about a 3 to 1 short in the pound.

Good examples

And these are exactly the kind of lower high entries we'll be hoping to see.


Ralph Shell

Some good news today, Ralph Shell the man behind the COT reports seems to have recovered from a serious illness. See the COT link and then under articles.

I hope to be back trading perhaps from this evening if it looks like a London close trade sets up, otherwise tomorrow.