28 Sep recap GU evening star at proven resistance level

Bias was up but the resistance level, W M5, high from 25 Sep combination for GU was too strong. There was a clear topping out process on 1hr chart, an evening star type pattern (positive close, doji, engulfing negative close). Such a clear pattern at a proven resistance level is an obvious trade. The importance of support/resistance and W pivots is clear.

EUR had a similar evening star pattern on 1hr with divergence. We sold GU.

EUR GU recap + 28 Sep

Recap Y's comments - There were no decent 1hr set ups on GU. EUR did flip over and trade under the 8lwma to give some opportunities to sell.

GU - D engulfing close above 50 RSI, 1hr flow now up. Whilst we are on upper resistance levels and W M3 bias up.

EUR - Same as GU except resistance levels/W pivots slightly different.

Autochartist

See the link to Vantagefx.com and go to market news, daily currency highlights. Autochartist analysis on AUDJPY.

EUR GU recap 27 Sep

Recap Y's comments - yesterday we did move back up to 1.29 and 1.62. There were sells there. We are not making much progress lower with lower wicks appearing on D.

EUR - D lower wick, 4hr and 1hr LH LL flow still in tact. We have moved back to the lows of 24 + 25 Sep. Divergence starting to appear 4hr and 1hr. Bias down still until flows reverse to HL.

GU - Same scenario as EUR, proven support/resistance areas and W pivots prominent.

EUR GU 26 Sep

EUR - The expected downside continues with 1.2900 failing early this morning. Would expect more downside. Will watch for signs that the moves are running out of steam after yesterdays stall at 1.2900 and move higher.

GU - The shooting star on D should follow through lower. 4hr moved back into lower high lower low. The move below 20 Sep lows will need to be watched to confirm it holds. Expect more downside unless there is clear rejection over time of move lower.

Both EUR and GU broke support areas this morning when volumes can be lower, they could just as easily retrace back to where they started 1.2900 and 1.6190.

COT Ralph Shell, Autochartist

See the link COT reports by Ralph Shell and go to articles, see Currency Specs Load Up Long the Commodity Curremcies-COT Sept 18 2012. EUR shorts continue to be liquidated in an orderly manner as per previous weeks. At some stage we'd expect the EUR to move up, there is still a long way to go yet before all positions settled though.

See the link to Vantagefx.com and go to market news, daily currency highlights. Autochartist analysis on EURUSD.

EUR GU 25 Sep

EUR - 1hr shooting star rejected one of the 3 likely areas (day's open/M 2 around 1.2970 region) mentioned Fri morning for the lower high lower low trend to remain in tact. The failure of US session to go lower might be important. D shows we failed to stay below the likely support area 1.2920. 4hr lower high lower low continues.Whilst there can always be bounces from proven support /resistance levels bias down still. Fri's low expected to be a key level.

GU - As mentioned was not as clear for a move down as the EUR. D closed another hammer. 4hr flow still not conclusive. At the moment we are still on higher high higher low but a negative close at the W pivot could change that. 1hr lower high lower low still in tact but the TF's not lining up for now.

EUR GU 24 Sep

EUR - D chart shows the major support/resistance bands. 4hr shows we are still on lower high lower low flow, however we are approaching a possible low at 1.2920. 1hr tried to go up twice on Fri and was rejected both times.  A move up could be rejected at 1.2955 Y's low, today's open or 1.30 the D pivot/low from 19 Sep. Bias for now on further move down.

GU - D hammer then shooting star makes things difficult. In the bigger picture we are still moving up with 4hr still on for higher high higher low. 1hr appears to be on lower high lower low. Whilst engulfing candles normally follow through (for a scalp trade at least) would prefer to see TF's fall in line to trade.

Autochartist EURAUD

Have a look at the Vantagefx.com link, go to Market News Daily Forex report and for the Autochartist EURAUD update.

Ralph Shell article

See the link COT reports by Ralph Shell, go to articles and see Quarterly Review of Changes in the Volume of the Currency Futures Trade.

EUR GU 21 Sep

We noted over the last few days that GU was not as clear as EUR for a move down.

GU - D closed a hammer and again a big move in Asian session. 1hr flow switched to HL HH. We have a major resistance level around 1.6265 where we can get a reaction and move lower again. In addition if EUR continues lower it could drag GU down. Comparing the reaction in Apr '12 to 1.6265 and now, my bias is up. Prepared to sell good set ups.

EUR - Bouncing between the SR and W pivots. At the moment we have stopped Asian session move up at low of 19 Sep. 1hr on LH LL. We could turn here or move up to W pivot and sell off there for an 85/15 trade. Whilst I suppose GU could drag EUR up for today sell bias.

Autochartist EURJPY

Have a look at the Vantagefx.com link, go to Market News Daily Forex update for the Autochartist EURJPY update.

GU EUR 20 Sep

EUR looked the better option for a sell than GU yesterday and did have a nice move down. The 4hr lower high after divergence played out nicely. The D evening star pattern couldn't follow through below the support level 1.3000 (Feb-Apr '12 lows). 1hr flow is on lower high lower low now. The reaction at yesterdays low will be important.

GU is again not as clear as EUR on D chart but we do have 1hr lower high lower low flow.

There are levels for bounces up but expecting more downside in line with 1hr flows.

EUR GU 19 Sep

EUR D chart has completed an evening star pattern at the high. We couldn't break through the 8 lwma which tracks price closely. We have crossed RSI but still above 50 level. So not everything is in place on D to have sell focus only. 1hr HH HL flow was broken yesterday but in Asian session we seem to have a HL. The support level at 1.3100 may provide resistance. Can look at good buy or sell set ups today.

GU D a doji at the top. The W M3 pivot at 1.6232 has provided support. Viewing yesterdays doji as a pause in up trend and buy bias for today.