GU - Similar picture to EUR.
EJ - Similar picture to EUR.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
EUR GU EJ 28 Feb
EUR - D closed positive for a morning star 3 bar reversal pattern. 4hr had a higher close yesterday following divergence. Price stalled at previous support/resistance level/W M2 1.3166. Bias up with potential to move lower from 1.3166.
GU - Similar picture to EUR.
EJ - Similar picture to EUR.
GU - Similar picture to EUR.
EJ - Similar picture to EUR.
Recap 27 Feb
EUR - View was: D closed a doji, contained by previously identified
support/resistance levels. Whilst we can go either way today the bias
remains down until price confirms otherwise. We have a base now at
1.3040, the move below that yesterday was strongly rejected. Price did prove otherwise, 4hr higher low following divergence, cross of RSI and 8lwma setting up the move. Even if regarded as counter trend our trade rules applied. Price rejecting previously identified support level 1.3014/W M1, 4hr divergence, flow changed to higher low following divergence.
GU - View was: D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise. The down bias did not play out, what seemed like a struggle to go lower won the day.
EJ - View was: D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down. There was a move down in line with bias but the clear base held and then moved up strongly from there.
GU - View was: D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise. The down bias did not play out, what seemed like a struggle to go lower won the day.
EJ - View was: D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down. There was a move down in line with bias but the clear base held and then moved up strongly from there.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
EUR GU EJ 27 Feb
EUR - D closed a doji, contained by previously identified support/resistance levels. Whilst we can go either way today the bias remains down until price confirms otherwise. We have a base now at 1.3040, the move below that yesterday was strongly rejected.
GU - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise.
EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down.
GU - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal. It seems a struggle to go lower in this 2 month down trend, bias remains down until proved otherwise.
EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr showing a clear base despite that there have been no strong moves higher. Bias remains down.
Recap 26 Feb
EUR - View was: Engulfing D neg close. 4hr and 1hr flow down, both showing
divergence. Whilst there can be a reaction up after the over sized
negative close bias down until flow confirms otherwise. We had an early move down before London open. Price moved higher reacting to the W M1 pivot/1.3015 support level previously identified on D charts.
GU - View was: Positive D close still below 8lwma, no trend line breaks. Flow on 4hr higher low and 1hr is on higher high higher low. This can be a buy or sell day. Overall moved lower but difficult to trade off 1hr as the negative close candles were all large.
EJ - View was: Bias down until positive flow proves otherwise. Overall there were good selling opportunities but the low from the 25th/W M0 held.
GU - View was: Positive D close still below 8lwma, no trend line breaks. Flow on 4hr higher low and 1hr is on higher high higher low. This can be a buy or sell day. Overall moved lower but difficult to trade off 1hr as the negative close candles were all large.
EJ - View was: Bias down until positive flow proves otherwise. Overall there were good selling opportunities but the low from the 25th/W M0 held.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
EUR GU EJ 26 Feb
EUR - Engulfing D neg close. 4hr and 1hr flow down, both showing divergence. Whilst there can be a reaction up after the over sized negative close bias down until flow confirms otherwise.
GU - Positive D close still below 8lwma, no trend line breaks. Flow on 4hr higher low and 1hr is on higher high higher low. This can be a buy or sell day.
EJ - Bias down until positive flow proves otherwise.
Recap 25 Feb
EUR - View was: D closed a doji, in itself not a strong signal. 4hr still clinging to the lower high lower low flow, divergence is showing and RSI has crossed above its signal line. Until flow properly moves higher bias down.
The 4hr that was still open at the time of posting did close as a higher low to change flow, moving up from the Sep '12 high/W M2 support. Price moved up to the Dec high/W M3 resistance level and fell after 2 x 1hr hammers.
GU - View was: GBP was down graded late Friday night, it remains to be seen whether this bad news will follow through. Had a gap down which is likely to be closed, so a possible move up to 1.5160 area. Still no reason to believe its anything other than a rally in downtrend. Bias down.
Attempt to move lower failed and gave a 4hr higher low in US session.
EJ - View was: Rejected another attempt to go below 123.00. D closed an inside bar, still just on a lower high lower low. 4hr had a higher low positive close hammer. The gap up will need to be closed suggesting a move down to 123.20 area.
Looking for a move lower to close the gap there were 2 x 1 hr shooting stars at W R1. It closed the gap and then just carried on falling over 600 pips.
Monday, February 25, 2013
EUR GU EJ 25 Feb
EUR - D closed a doji, in itself not a strong signal. 4hr still clinging to the lower high lower low flow, divergence is showing and RSI has crossed above its signal line. Until flow properly moves higher bias down.
GU - GBP was down graded late Friday night, it remains to be seen whether this bad news will follow through. Had a gap down which is likely to be closed, so a possible move up to 1.5160 area. Still no reason to believe its anything other than a rally in downtrend. Bias down.
EJ - Rejected another attempt to go below 123.00. D closed an inside bar, still just on a lower high lower low. 4hr had a higher low positive close hammer. The gap up will need to be closed suggesting a move down to 123.20 area.
GU - GBP was down graded late Friday night, it remains to be seen whether this bad news will follow through. Had a gap down which is likely to be closed, so a possible move up to 1.5160 area. Still no reason to believe its anything other than a rally in downtrend. Bias down.
EJ - Rejected another attempt to go below 123.00. D closed an inside bar, still just on a lower high lower low. 4hr had a higher low positive close hammer. The gap up will need to be closed suggesting a move down to 123.20 area.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Recap 21 Feb
EUR - View was: There is nothing to suggest that
this is anything other than a rally in down trend. We could fall today
or in two days. Short term counter trend buy (but that ship may already
have sailed), looking for return to down trend, bias down. Lots of upper wicks around London open, fell nice after LO. At US open another upper wick with a shooting star and we fell nicely as per bias.
GU - View was: Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells. There was a double top and then a negative close in US session started move down as per bias. The big drop only happened very late in session with GBP getting a rating down grade.
EJ - View was: D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made. Upper wicks after London open and a negative close hammer signaled move down.
Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we don not generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
GU - View was: Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells. There was a double top and then a negative close in US session started move down as per bias. The big drop only happened very late in session with GBP getting a rating down grade.
EJ - View was: D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made. Upper wicks after London open and a negative close hammer signaled move down.
Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we don not generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
W pivots, 4hr charts
Posting to show yet again how important the W pivots are and that there are normally 2-4 trades a week from the crossings (RSI/8lwma) and price action including divergence.
Friday, February 22, 2013
EUR GU EJ 22 Feb
EUR - D negative close stopped at the next identified resistance level 1.3166/W S2 1.3181. 4hr showing lower wicks and divergence, RSI crossed above signal line on an open candle. 1hr showing divergence and the higher low following the divergence played out nicely in Asian session. 1hr still on lower high lower low flow. There is nothing to suggest that this is anything other than a rally in down trend. We could fall today or in two days. Short term counter trend buy (but that ship may already have sailed), looking for return to down trend, bias down.
GU - D closed a hammer and with Asian move up already up 200 pips from yesterdays lows. 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Unless there has been a fundamental shift caused by news would expect some multiple day reversal pattern to play out. Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells.
EJ - D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made.
Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we do not generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
GU - D closed a hammer and with Asian move up already up 200 pips from yesterdays lows. 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Unless there has been a fundamental shift caused by news would expect some multiple day reversal pattern to play out. Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells.
EJ - D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made.
Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we do not generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
Recap 21 Feb
Recap 21 Feb
EUR - View was: D lower high, engulfing negative close. 13260 gave support for about a week in Jan. The D close should follow through lower, bias down. We did fall.
GU - Bias down. We fell into Frankfurt open but from there a strong push up.
EJ - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down, support level 123.00. Fell 80 pips below the 123.00 support.
EUR - View was: D lower high, engulfing negative close. 13260 gave support for about a week in Jan. The D close should follow through lower, bias down. We did fall.
GU - Bias down. We fell into Frankfurt open but from there a strong push up.
EJ - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down, support level 123.00. Fell 80 pips below the 123.00 support.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
EUR GU EJ 21 Feb
EUR - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 13260 gave support for about a week in Jan. The D close should follow through lower, bias down.
GU - Bias down.
EJ - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down, support level 123.00. I wonder when the JPY authorities will work to push yen up again?
GU - Bias down.
EJ - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down, support level 123.00. I wonder when the JPY authorities will work to push yen up again?
Recap 20 Feb
20 Feb
EUR - View was: We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up. Price stalled at the Asian highs/W M3 for 4hrs with divergence on 1hr. The main part of the fall happened after we stopped trading.
GU - View was: We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down. Strong fall on the news.
EJ - View was: 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that. We did get the engulfing negative close and move down.
EUR - View was: We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up. Price stalled at the Asian highs/W M3 for 4hrs with divergence on 1hr. The main part of the fall happened after we stopped trading.
GU - View was: We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down. Strong fall on the news.
EJ - View was: 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that. We did get the engulfing negative close and move down.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Recap 19 Feb, EUR GU EJ 20 Feb
Recap 19 Feb
EUR - View was bias down with potential move up from the support level. W M2 1.3332 held for 7 hours and gave buys after US open and then a little later in session.
GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level. We did move down after 3hours failing to go up and 2 decent upper wicks on 1hr..
EJ - Bias was up, it played out when support level held for approx 7 hours.
20 Feb
MPC minutes this morning one of the days I will either trade early or wait until after the news.
EUR - Positive D close off the 1.33 support area, slight RSI divergence. 1hr flow now higher high higher low. We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up.
GU - D negative close, RSI not moving lower. We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down.
EJ - D close did nothing, moving up over night in Asian session. 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that.
EUR - View was bias down with potential move up from the support level. W M2 1.3332 held for 7 hours and gave buys after US open and then a little later in session.
GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level. We did move down after 3hours failing to go up and 2 decent upper wicks on 1hr..
EJ - Bias was up, it played out when support level held for approx 7 hours.
20 Feb
MPC minutes this morning one of the days I will either trade early or wait until after the news.
EUR - Positive D close off the 1.33 support area, slight RSI divergence. 1hr flow now higher high higher low. We stopped at the W M3 pivot 1.3439. Cannot explain why I have doubts about this move up but charts say bias up.
GU - D negative close, RSI not moving lower. We are in the area of July '12 lows 1.5400/25. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Bias down.
EJ - D close did nothing, moving up over night in Asian session. 1hr flow down after the double top 125.90. A solid 1hr engulfing close would confirm move up. Bias up but a negative, engulfing close on 4hr could change that.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
EUR GU EJ 19 Feb
Not a lot happened yesterday with the US holiday.
19 Feb
I'll retain the bias from 18th.
EUR - Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
EJ - Bias up.
19 Feb
I'll retain the bias from 18th.
EUR - Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
GU - Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
EJ - Bias up.
Monday, February 18, 2013
EUR GU EJ 18 Feb
18 Feb
EUR - Weekly closed a doji, D closed a doji at the Dec '12 highs. Not decisive for buys or sells. Perhaps just treading water whilst the G20, G7 meetings were on. 4hr had a double bottom with divergence but remains on lower high. 1hr on lower high. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
GU - Weekly had a 3 bar reversal closing well below the previous 2 closes. D closed a doji. 4hr showed divergence for move up, still on lower high. We are very close to the lows. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
EJ - D closed a hammer RSI above 50 level. 1hr flow higher high higher low, bias up.
EUR - Weekly closed a doji, D closed a doji at the Dec '12 highs. Not decisive for buys or sells. Perhaps just treading water whilst the G20, G7 meetings were on. 4hr had a double bottom with divergence but remains on lower high. 1hr on lower high. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
GU - Weekly had a 3 bar reversal closing well below the previous 2 closes. D closed a doji. 4hr showed divergence for move up, still on lower high. We are very close to the lows. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.
EJ - D closed a hammer RSI above 50 level. 1hr flow higher high higher low, bias up.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
4hr charts - 2 or 3 trades a week
Based on RSI crossing its signal line, as a general rule the 4hr chart will give 2 or 3 signals a week. Perhaps 4 if its particularly choppy. Based on this very simple observation could you use this information in your trading plan entering from 15 min chart?
Don't use RSI cross? How about price opening one side and closing the other side of 8lwma?
Together with some of the most basic trading concepts and you can add to your plan. Did the 4hr give a double top/bottom, higher low/lower high, stall at a certain level for some time (is there a support/resistance level or W pivot), revert to trend? If you are already in a trade and 4 hr then signals could you stay in longer?
Don't use RSI cross? How about price opening one side and closing the other side of 8lwma?
Together with some of the most basic trading concepts and you can add to your plan. Did the 4hr give a double top/bottom, higher low/lower high, stall at a certain level for some time (is there a support/resistance level or W pivot), revert to trend? If you are already in a trade and 4 hr then signals could you stay in longer?
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