29 May

EUR - Downtrend still in place, support and resistance levels highlighted. Price moved up to the previous highs and gave 3 1hr candles to signal move back to trend (doji, shooting star, doji). 1hr lower high lower low in place. Bias down.

GU - D lower high close. Bounce Asian session from the support area, W M2 1.5068. No reason to believe this is anything other than a rally in downtrend. Very similar situation to EUR, bias down.

EJ - Uptrend has resumed. Bias up.

EA - No sign of uptrend failing, next identified resistance level I have is 1.3650. Stalled at the previous high.

AU - Below the June '12 low. The reaction last week to the low was nothing like June's. Will need to see if the break below the resistance level can hold.

NU - Divergence at the lows, 1 hr has been chopping a tight range for a few days now.

UC - D higher low seems in place after reject of resistance level 1.0365. 1hr higher high higher low flow in place.

28 May

EUR - Downtrend still in place, support and resistance levels highlighted.

GU - D lower high close. Bounce Asian session from the support area, W M2 1.5068. No reason to believe this is anything other than a rally in downtrend.

EJ - Uptrend has resumed in Asian session with a 100 pip move up.

EA - No sign of uptrend failing, next identified resistance level I have is 1.3650.

AU - Bouncing off the June '12 low. Only time will tell if this is a change in trend or a pause in downtrend. The reaction last week to the low was nothing like June's.

NU - Divergence at the lows, 1 hr has been chopping a tight range for a few days now.

UC - D higher low seems in place after reject of resistance level 1.0365.

UK and US holidays today

With holidays in both markets care would be recommended today.

Recap 23 May

EUR - Pushed up to the 1.3000 resistance level and sold off strongly with Bernanke testifying. D closed a shooting star. This would suggest down trend resuming. We will have to see if the news reaction follows through lower today or if the buyers at 1.2800 win the day. Bias down.
Result: The news reaction did not follow through lower. Bias down did not play out, the identified support level 1.2800/W M2 held. First warning sign a positive close on 4hr then a doji on 1hr.
 
GU - I don't have the lower wicks marked on my D chart but its obvious (20 Mar, 4 Apr) that we have a potential support area here. Yesterdays close looks nothing like the big wicks on those days. Bias down.
Result: Same as EUR, the identified support level/W S2 held. First warning sign a positive close on 4hr then a doji on 1hr.

EJ - Yesterday closed a shooting star after reaching the D resistance level/W R2, with negative divergence. On Y's D close we are still above the 8lwma and RSI above the 50 level and looking to cross up. Asian session has dropped 100 pips already making further counter trend (on D chart that is) sells very tricky. No bias.
Result: EJ moved lower going into London open but no follow through lower after bouncing around at the lows. 

EUR GU EJ 23 May

EUR - Pushed up to the 1.3000 resistance level and sold off strongly with Bernanke testifying. D closed a shooting star. This would suggest down trend resuming. We will have to see if the news reaction follows through lower today or if the buyers at 1.2800 win the day. Bias down.

GU - I don't have the lower wicks marked on my D chart but its obvious (20 Mar, 4 Apr) that we have a potential support area here. Yesterdays close looks nothing like the big wicks on those days. Bias down.

EJ - Yesterday closed a shooting star after reaching the D resistance level/W R2, with negative divergence. On Y's D close we are still above the 8lwma and RSI above the 50 level and looking to cross up. Asian session has dropped 100 pips already making further counter trend (on D chart that is) sells very tricky. No bias.

Recap 22 May

MPC minutes this morning and Bernanke testifies this afternoon (each around 90 minutes after their respective markets open).

EUR - D closed positive but not entirely convincing. We have not had any pullback for a 4-7 day turn, i.e. no double bottom/higher low. Take a look at the D chart on most turns you'd have some kind of final attempt in direction of trend. 4hr flow higher high higher low. 1hr showing upper wicks at W M3 1.2932. 1hr positive close would see retest of yesterdays high/W M3, a negative close would change the flow down again. No bias as we can obviously go in either direction. I would suspect down at some point as the move up is either a rally in down trend or we need a move down to complete a 4-7 day turn.
Result: We did have the London open 1hr positive close to test to test the previous days high. Going into US session another 1hr higher low which we did not consider with Bernanke approaching. The move up was sold off strongly.

GU - D lower high engulfing negative close. 4hr lower high lower low flow in place, positive divergence showing. A positive close on 1hr would be a higher low following divergence. Bias is down though.
Result: Down bias played out nicely at London open.

EJ - D closed positive with a small range. 4hr showing moves up largely happening during Asian session recently. We have closed at the highs/W M3 and need to see the reaction. A smaller reaction lower (that we are currently seeing) may see highs fail for move up.
Result: The weaker reaction from a key level is often a sign that level will fail. Nice move up until Bernanke testified.

 

EUR GU EJ 22 May

MPC minutes this morning and Bernanke testifies this afternoon (each around 90 minutes after their respective markets open).

EUR - D closed positive but not entirely convincing. We have not had any pullback for a 4-7 day turn, i.e. no double bottom/higher low. Take a look at the D chart on most turns you'd have some kind of final attempt in direction of trend. 4hr flow higher high higher low. 1hr showing upper wicks at W M3 1.2932. 1hr positive close would see retest of yesterdays high/W M3, a negative close would change the flow down again. No bias as we can obviously go in either direction. I would suspect down at some point as the move up is either a rally in down trend or we need a move down to complete a 4-7 day turn.

GU - D lower high engulfing negative close. 4hr lower high lower low flow in place, positive divergence showing. A positive close on 1hr would be a higher low following divergence. Bias is down though.

EJ - D closed positive with a small range. 4hr showing moves up largely happening during Asian session recently. We have closed at the highs/W M3 and need to see the reaction. A smaller reaction lower (that we are currently seeing) may see highs fail for move up.

Recap 21 May

EUR - D closed positive up from the 1.2800 support level. RSI crossed but we closed below the 8lwma. 4hr still on lower high lower low. 1hr made a slight higher high in Asian session (perfectly normal for Asian session to respect the range) and on higher high higher low, its possible that will fail now. The time frames are giving conflicting information. D could be start of move up or just an expected rally in down trend. A 1hr positive close here might see test of yesterdays high. If the W pivot 1.2886 holds and we close negative then we are on 1hr lower high. Due to the conflicting info no bias but my preference is for move lower and this is a rally in down trend.
Result: At London open the W pivot held with an engulfing close shooting star, the upper wick rejecting the Asian session highs. A double bottom  engulfing close hammer at London close started move up.

GU - D closed positive and we have struggled for 4 days to go lower below 1.5160/80. 4hr on lower high lower low, closed negative but RSI has not crossed and still above 8lwma. 1hr made a lower high in Asian session at W M3 and might be on another lower high. Obviously from the positive D close can move up or can be rally in down trend.
Result: Engulfing negative close shooting star at London open started move down.

EJ - Largely a mess either avoided or have patience. Even though it was a solid 4hr 'signal' yesterday,  engulfing negative close just above W S1 131.50, RSI cross, we left it due to the obvious support.
Result: The move up in Asian session had little follow through.

 

EUR GU EJ 21 May

EUR - D closed positive up from the 1.2800 support level. RSI crossed but we closed below the 8lwma. 4hr still on lower high lower low. 1hr made a slight higher high in Asian session (perfectly normal for Asian session to respect the range) and on higher high higher low, its possible that will fail now. The time frames are giving conflicting information. D could be start of move up or just an expected rally in down trend. A 1hr positive close here might see test of yesterdays high. If the W pivot 1.2886 holds and we close negative then we are on 1hr lower high. Due to the conflicting info no bias but my preference is for move lower and this is a rally in down trend.

GU - D closed positive and we have struggled for 4 days to go lower below 1.5160/80. 4hr on lower high lower low, closed negative but RSI has not crossed and still above 8lwma. 1hr made a lower high in Asian session at W M3 and might be on another lower high. Obviously from the positive D close can move up or can be rally in down trend.

EJ - Largely a mess either avoided or have patience. Even though it was a solid 4hr 'signal' yesterday,  engulfing negative close just above W S1 131.50, RSI cross, we left it due to the obvious support.

Recap 20 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting 1.2800. 4hr lower high lower low in tact, positive divergence is still showing. 1hr shows the bounce from 1.2800 at the London close time frame and Asian session then made a higher low.. The June '12 high/Mar, Apr '13 lows support/resistance level is 1.2745 where we have W  S1 also. Seems like a good target if we can get there, the reaction up in Apr shows how 1.2800 was bought.. Bias down with obvious support at 1.2800. After an almost 400 pip move down with no real bounce a reversal is due.
Result: The 1hr higher low following 4hr divergence won the day and we did move up at London open and after London close. So we did get a (not totally unexpected) bounce up.

GU - D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. 4hr just made a new low with positive divergence showing. Bias down.
Result: The 1hr higher low following 4hr divergence saw move up.

EJ - D closed positive. Comments from Economy minister Akira Amari, responding to a question on how far the yen should weaken, replied that while he couldn't comment himself, "it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed" set off a massive drop. No idea what the big boys will do with this.
Result: After the news at market open a small range day that we left.

 

EUR GU EJ 20 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting 1.2800. 4hr lower high lower low in tact, positive divergence is still showing. 1hr shows the bounce from 1.2800 at the London close time frame and Asian session then made a higher low.. The June '12 high/Mar, Apr '13 lows support/resistance level is 1.2745 where we have W  S1 also. Seems like a good target if we can get there, the reaction up in Apr shows how 1.2800 was bought.. Bias down with obvious support at 1.2800. After an almost 400 pip move down with no real bounce a reversal is due.

GU - D closed a lower high 3 bar reversal. 4hr just made a new low with positive divergence showing. Bias down.

EJ - D closed positive. Comments from Economy minister Akira Amari, responding to a question on how far the yen should weaken, replied that while he couldn't comment himself, "it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed" set off a massive drop. No idea what the big boys will do with this.

4hr charts + W pivots

As usual the 4hr charts to show the importance of support/resistance levels and W pivots and the number of decent moves in a week (typically 2-4 on occasion 5).

This is the general picture week in and week out, long before I posted the 4hr charts to highlight it. If its not formally a part of your trading plan it certainly needs to be at the back of your mind.

Recap 17 May

EUR - D has not signaled a buy, 4hr evening star pattern. Bias down with potential to move up from the lows 1.2840 area.
Result: Down bias played out, negative close on 1hr followed by 15 min lower high (head and shoulders) at the upper extreme of recent price action..

GU - 4hr about to close and signal sell. Bias down with potential to move up from the lows/W M1 1.5193 area.
Result: Down bias played out, 1hr shooting star followed by 15 min lower high at the recent upper extreme of price action.

EJ - Bias down with potential to bounce from the lows above 131.00.
Result: As with EUR and GU the moves of the day were in the US session. Decent move down in line with bias to the recent support levels above 131.00 where we bounced. 


I don't think it would be unreasonable to say that all 3 pairs moved in line with with the analysis done at the start of the day.  Does this work every day as well as this, no if course not. On most days even if moves are counter to the initial view there is usually ample information to support following the counter trend trade rules. Proven support/resistance levels or W pivots. Change of flow on 1hr i.e. multiple candle patterns higher low/lower high, double bottom/top, evening/morning star patterns with 3 bar reversals.

EUR GU EJ 17 May

EUR - D has not signaled a buy, 4hr evening star pattern. Bias down with potential to move up from the lows 1.2840 area.

GU - 4hr about to close and signal sell. Bias down with potential to move up from the lows/W M1 1.5193 area. 

 EJ - Bias down with potential to bounce from the lows above 131.00.

Recap 16 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting move below the support level 1.2878. The move up has been weak. Bias down until flow changes to higher low.
Result: D closed an inside candle doji, still below 8lwma and RSI 50 level. 4hr had a move up forming a double bottom then almost immediately an evening star pattern.

GU - D closed a doji, 4hr shows how the move is running out of steam. Whilst this does give potential for counter trend buy viewing this just as pause in down trend. Bias down.
Result: Down bias did not play out, support/W M1 held. D closed a large body doji, still below 8lwma and RSI 50 level but did signal as a 3 bar reversal. The 4hr signaled a counter trend buy which did allow a scalp trade but heading lower to signal resumption of move down.

EJ - As often the case doing analysis does not quite play out but she does give solid signals as the day unfolds. Looking for reaction to the April highs that acted as support yesterday. No bias.
Result: D closed an inside candle doji. 4hr appears to be forming a lower high. 

EUR GU EJ 16 May

EUR - D closed with a lower wick rejecting move below the support level 1.2878. The move up has been weak. Bias down until flow changes to higher low.

GU - D closed a doji, 4hr shows how the move is running out of steam. Whilst this does give potential for counter trend buy viewing this just as pause in down trend. Bias down.

EJ - As often the case doing analysis does not quite play out but she does give solid signals as the day unfolds. Looking for reaction to the April highs that acted as support yesterday. No bias.

Recap 15 May - EJ lower high following divergence

EUR - D closed negative. 4hr flow lower high lower low flow but positive divergence still there. December lows 1.2878 and W S1 1.2882 could provide support. Bias down.
Result: Down bias played out.

GU - Bias down.
Result: Very choppy, yesterdays lows held (so far).

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr negative divergence no real idea on these time frames what EJ wants to do. There are decent 1hr set ups that happen but get them wrong and you could get chopped. All in all we are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up.
Result: Whilst we have bounced up the 4hr lower high following divergence gave a nice sell. 

EUR GU EJ 15 May

EUR - D closed negative. 4hr flow lower high lower low flow but positive divergence still there. December lows 1.2878 and W S1 1.2882 could provide support. Bias down.

GU - Bias down.

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr negative divergence no real idea on these time frames what EJ wants to do. There are decent 1hr set ups that happen but get them wrong and you could get chopped. All in all we are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up.