Saturday, November 30, 2013
4hr charts W pivots
Showing as usual to highlight the importance of the W pivots, support and resistance levels and the typically number of trades that can be expected in a week 2-5.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Trend v support and resistance
You will never know which will win the day, trend or support and resistance.
If you were to buy here around 1.4960 fine but just be fully aware of what you are up against:
If you were to buy here around 1.4960 fine but just be fully aware of what you are up against:
- Yesterday we failed to go higher closing as a hanging man,
- Its Friday pm and there's more than a few traders that avoid Fridays all together,
- 1.4960 is in and around yesterdays high,
- The run up is now 950 pips,
- We are in a major resistance area from August.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Trading 101
Trend
Have a higher time frame definition of trend, whatever works for you. It could be MACD cross, a moving average cross, price above or below a moving average, a candle pattern etc etc etc.
Have a look at this euraud D chart. I look for the 3-7 day turns in the market that result in a move above or below the 8lwma or RSI cross. That's my general trend definition.
Taking it one step further. The x's mark weak candles that cannot cause a cross of the 8lwma or RSI. Could they be the start of a counter trend move, sure. Just as likely they are a pause before continuation of the trend. I have also added support/resistance levels for proven turns in the market. Could you at times get a better entry than waiting for the 8lwma to cross, of course yes. Most often though the 3-7 days turn will play out before a new trend forms.
Whys that? Well the big boys can't dump all their orders onto the market at once, they wouldn't get filled. It takes some time to turn a big ship around.
Lower time frame entry into trend
Once the D trend has shown itself in terms of your trade definition (e.g. D 3-7 day turn that switches price across the 8lwma, MACD cross, RSI above or below 50 level) there are normally many opportunities to enter from lower time frames before the next trend forms. For example buying 1hr dips in uptrend, selling 1hr rallies in down trend.
So if you have a view that from 21 Nov the D chart is suggesting an uptrend and therefore its buy only, then the issue is on what basis will I buy? You could use an oscillator going over sold, retrace below then move above a moving average, candle patterns from a pivot/round number/fib or some kind of price action like an engulfing close on a lower time frame like the 1hr chart. That's up to each trader but its a lot easier to have a view of the trend and trade in that direction than trying (but inevitably failing) to capture each move in the market.
Have a higher time frame definition of trend, whatever works for you. It could be MACD cross, a moving average cross, price above or below a moving average, a candle pattern etc etc etc.
Have a look at this euraud D chart. I look for the 3-7 day turns in the market that result in a move above or below the 8lwma or RSI cross. That's my general trend definition.
Taking it one step further. The x's mark weak candles that cannot cause a cross of the 8lwma or RSI. Could they be the start of a counter trend move, sure. Just as likely they are a pause before continuation of the trend. I have also added support/resistance levels for proven turns in the market. Could you at times get a better entry than waiting for the 8lwma to cross, of course yes. Most often though the 3-7 days turn will play out before a new trend forms.
Whys that? Well the big boys can't dump all their orders onto the market at once, they wouldn't get filled. It takes some time to turn a big ship around.
Lower time frame entry into trend
Once the D trend has shown itself in terms of your trade definition (e.g. D 3-7 day turn that switches price across the 8lwma, MACD cross, RSI above or below 50 level) there are normally many opportunities to enter from lower time frames before the next trend forms. For example buying 1hr dips in uptrend, selling 1hr rallies in down trend.
So if you have a view that from 21 Nov the D chart is suggesting an uptrend and therefore its buy only, then the issue is on what basis will I buy? You could use an oscillator going over sold, retrace below then move above a moving average, candle patterns from a pivot/round number/fib or some kind of price action like an engulfing close on a lower time frame like the 1hr chart. That's up to each trader but its a lot easier to have a view of the trend and trade in that direction than trying (but inevitably failing) to capture each move in the market.
Summary
Have some definition of higher time frame trend. Then look for an entry signal from a lower time frame. Then research that they work, the majority of the time. Buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a down trend is a trading basic that will not change.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
4hr charts W pivots
As usual there are 3-5 trade possibilities from the 4hr chart simply looing at the RSI cross or price trading above/below the 8lwma.
Monday, September 23, 2013
23 Sep 2013
GU - D closed a large body doji above 8lwma, RSI flat above 50 level but crossed lower. 4hr flow was lower high lower low, that might have turned but could just be Asian session pause. Bias up.
EJ - D closed a doji, no follow through higher after the over sized candle on Thursday. 4hr lower high after divergence and RSI cross below signal line did follow through lower and might continue to do so. Viewing this as dip in uptrend until D confirms otherwise, bias up.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up and on 50 level. Gapped up on the open but strong retrace lower in Asian session. No bias.
AUD - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but above 50 level. Gapped lower on the open but strong move higher in Asian session. No bias.
EJ - D closed a doji, no follow through higher after the over sized candle on Thursday. 4hr lower high after divergence and RSI cross below signal line did follow through lower and might continue to do so. Viewing this as dip in uptrend until D confirms otherwise, bias up.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up and on 50 level. Gapped up on the open but strong retrace lower in Asian session. No bias.
AUD - D closed negative, RSI crossed lower but above 50 level. Gapped lower on the open but strong move higher in Asian session. No bias.
Friday, September 20, 2013
20 Sep 2013 Above/below 50 level RSI and above below 8lwma
Our general trend views:
D chart above 50 level on RSI and above 8lwma chances of uptrend very strong. D neg close candle that cannot break below the 8lwma is a good chance just a hesitation in uptrend. Move below and close above D 8lwma again, the chances of trend continuing are strong.
The opposite holds true for below D 50 level on RSI and below 8lwma.
There are always exceptions and GU might be one of them.
GU - D closed negative after the over sized positive close candle (which is why we are still above the 8lwma), RSI cross lower. On any normal day price action of that kind, 140 pip negative close, would almost certainly be an engulfing candle with the expectation of a move lower. We are still above the 8lwma so we'd usually have the view possible pause in uptrend. 4hr is still on higher high higher low wave, RSI crossed lower. 1hr has made lower high lower lows. We have not had a 3-7 day reversal pattern but the FOMC news push up may have messed things up somewhat. Retaining bias up but a 4hr lower high negative close would change that.
EJ - D closed positive through the May high resistance level, little no upper wick. 4hr looks like its setting up for a lower high. Normally bias would be up for trend continuation. The over sized D candle could be the last blow out at the end of a run and for now we need to see if the break above the 1.3370 area holds. Bias up, potential for break of resistance level to fail.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed signal line up with divergence. 4hr higher low yesterday following through higher but for now stalling at the W pivot 1.4337. Its 2 weeks now that we have held at 1.4250, the move below was quickly rejected. Time will tell if this is a major turn, bias up.
AUD - Very similar picture to GU. D close negative after over sized positive close. 4hr looks like closing negative. If EURAUD is to move up AUD needs to fall.
D chart above 50 level on RSI and above 8lwma chances of uptrend very strong. D neg close candle that cannot break below the 8lwma is a good chance just a hesitation in uptrend. Move below and close above D 8lwma again, the chances of trend continuing are strong.
The opposite holds true for below D 50 level on RSI and below 8lwma.
There are always exceptions and GU might be one of them.
GU - D closed negative after the over sized positive close candle (which is why we are still above the 8lwma), RSI cross lower. On any normal day price action of that kind, 140 pip negative close, would almost certainly be an engulfing candle with the expectation of a move lower. We are still above the 8lwma so we'd usually have the view possible pause in uptrend. 4hr is still on higher high higher low wave, RSI crossed lower. 1hr has made lower high lower lows. We have not had a 3-7 day reversal pattern but the FOMC news push up may have messed things up somewhat. Retaining bias up but a 4hr lower high negative close would change that.
EJ - D closed positive through the May high resistance level, little no upper wick. 4hr looks like its setting up for a lower high. Normally bias would be up for trend continuation. The over sized D candle could be the last blow out at the end of a run and for now we need to see if the break above the 1.3370 area holds. Bias up, potential for break of resistance level to fail.
EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed signal line up with divergence. 4hr higher low yesterday following through higher but for now stalling at the W pivot 1.4337. Its 2 weeks now that we have held at 1.4250, the move below was quickly rejected. Time will tell if this is a major turn, bias up.
AUD - Very similar picture to GU. D close negative after over sized positive close. 4hr looks like closing negative. If EURAUD is to move up AUD needs to fall.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
19 Sep 2013
The FOMC statement caused some big moves which can retrace just as easily as continue. Will not attempt an analysis on this basis.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
18 Sep 2013
GU - An up and down day closing a shooting star. US session had no follow through on its move lower on 16th. 4hr sideways for now finding support above W M3 and the bottom of the gap up. Retaining up bias until D gives a clearer 3-7 day reversal
pattern.
GBPAUD - D closed negative. 4hr on a lower high and also a higher low. The support yesterday rejecting the move below 1.7000 but against that we did not move up much. Bias down but we could easily flip up.
EJ - D higher low closed positive at the resistance area 132.50. Bias up but we could fall from the resistance level.
EURAUD - Very similar picture to GBPAUD. D closed negative, 4hr on a lower high and higher low, small bounce up from support. Bias down but we could easily flip up.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr last close was positive so it appears we are on a higher low. Bias up.
GBPAUD - D closed negative. 4hr on a lower high and also a higher low. The support yesterday rejecting the move below 1.7000 but against that we did not move up much. Bias down but we could easily flip up.
EJ - D higher low closed positive at the resistance area 132.50. Bias up but we could fall from the resistance level.
EURAUD - Very similar picture to GBPAUD. D closed negative, 4hr on a lower high and higher low, small bounce up from support. Bias down but we could easily flip up.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr last close was positive so it appears we are on a higher low. Bias up.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
17 Sep 2013
GU - Moved down in US session yesterday to close the gap and negative for the day but still above RSI 50 level and 8lwma. 4hr has signaled a scalp sell. Retaining up bias until D gives a clearer 3-7 day reversal pattern.
GBPAUD - D closed a long legged doji, RSI crossed up. 4hr showing some large spikes on news yesterday and this morning. We haven't closed the gap yet. Bias up.
EJ - D closed positive with a large upper wick, RSI flat. 4hr showing clearly the base at 131.60. There is a resistance area at 132.50 should we move up. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed a long legged doji from the support area 1.4250. The gap down has not been closed as yet. 4hr showing the AUD news spike. Still in the 1.4240 - 1.4400 range time will tell who wins out. Bias up.
AUD - D closed a shooting star. 4hr showing a very strong 3 bar reversal pushing lower to close yesterdays gap. bias down.
GBPAUD - D closed a long legged doji, RSI crossed up. 4hr showing some large spikes on news yesterday and this morning. We haven't closed the gap yet. Bias up.
EJ - D closed positive with a large upper wick, RSI flat. 4hr showing clearly the base at 131.60. There is a resistance area at 132.50 should we move up. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed a long legged doji from the support area 1.4250. The gap down has not been closed as yet. 4hr showing the AUD news spike. Still in the 1.4240 - 1.4400 range time will tell who wins out. Bias up.
AUD - D closed a shooting star. 4hr showing a very strong 3 bar reversal pushing lower to close yesterdays gap. bias down.
Monday, September 16, 2013
16 Sep 2013
GU - The hanging man/doji close on Thursday was not the start of move down, just a
pause in uptrend. Gapped up and would normally expect gap to be closed before trend resumes. Bias up but the gap up could cause a few issues.
GBPAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up. 4hr on higher high higher low. Gapped down this morning. Bias up.
EJ - D closed a large doji, RSI flat. 4hr on lower high but showing the double bottom.. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive but within the previous days highs. Gapped down and Asian session pushed lower but already retraced up over 100 pips from last weeks lows. For now 1.4240 - 1.4400 the range time will tell who wins out.
AUD - D closed negative with a lower wick, Thursdays low holding. Gapped up this morning, then pushed higher, retraced almost 80 pips already.
GBPAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up. 4hr on higher high higher low. Gapped down this morning. Bias up.
EJ - D closed a large doji, RSI flat. 4hr on lower high but showing the double bottom.. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive but within the previous days highs. Gapped down and Asian session pushed lower but already retraced up over 100 pips from last weeks lows. For now 1.4240 - 1.4400 the range time will tell who wins out.
AUD - D closed negative with a lower wick, Thursdays low holding. Gapped up this morning, then pushed higher, retraced almost 80 pips already.
Friday, September 13, 2013
13 Sep 2013
GU - D closed a hanging man at the end of a run up at a proven turning point in the past (Nov '12 low). 4hr RSI crossed lower suggesting scalp sells possible until D turns. This can be start of move down or just a pause in uptrend so no bias.
GBPAUD - D closed positive with a large upper wick, RSI crossed up. 4hr now on higher high higher low, RSI above 50 level. Bias up based on 4hr, failure to move above 1.7135 could flip move lower.
EJ - D closed negative with a large lower wick, RSI touched signal line for cross lower. 4hr asking am I a higher low or lower high. Not sure no bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive with an upper wick in the area of the June highs, RSI crossed up and we are above the 8lwma. 4hr not conclusive, Asian session push up failing to get anywhere near yesterdays high. 4hr above RSI 50 level. Retaining bias up but I am far from convinced and we could easily flip lower.
AUD - D closed lower with a lower wick. 4hr on a lower high and to test yesterdays lows. Short term bias down but we could easily flip back into uptrend.
GBPAUD - D closed positive with a large upper wick, RSI crossed up. 4hr now on higher high higher low, RSI above 50 level. Bias up based on 4hr, failure to move above 1.7135 could flip move lower.
EJ - D closed negative with a large lower wick, RSI touched signal line for cross lower. 4hr asking am I a higher low or lower high. Not sure no bias.
EURAUD - D closed positive with an upper wick in the area of the June highs, RSI crossed up and we are above the 8lwma. 4hr not conclusive, Asian session push up failing to get anywhere near yesterdays high. 4hr above RSI 50 level. Retaining bias up but I am far from convinced and we could easily flip lower.
AUD - D closed lower with a lower wick. 4hr on a lower high and to test yesterdays lows. Short term bias down but we could easily flip back into uptrend.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
12 Sep 2013
GU - D closed positive stopping at the Nov '12 lows. Could react lower from here but bias up.
GBPAUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move higher this morning. It seems the Big Boys that stopped selling knew more than the news agencies.
EJ - D closed small negative inside bar. The 4hr RSI cross lower and lower high after divergence played out nicely. Short term bias down until D confirms.
EURAUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move higher this morning. It seems the Big Boys that stopped selling knew more than the news agencies.
AUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move lower this morning.We'll have to see if move can follow through.
GBPAUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move higher this morning. It seems the Big Boys that stopped selling knew more than the news agencies.
EJ - D closed small negative inside bar. The 4hr RSI cross lower and lower high after divergence played out nicely. Short term bias down until D confirms.
EURAUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move higher this morning. It seems the Big Boys that stopped selling knew more than the news agencies.
AUD - Aus employment much worse than forecast causing a big move lower this morning.We'll have to see if move can follow through.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
11 Sep 2013
GU - D closed positive at the June highs resistance level. 4hr higher high higher low with negative divergence. A simple case of trend v resistance and we don't know which will win this time. Bias up until price action confirms otherwise.
GBPAUD - D closed negative at the June/early July highs. 1hr shows the multiple bottoms. We'll need to see the reaction today but the US session did not take us lower yesterday. The past few days has been 1 day down 1 day up. Bias down until price action confirms otherwise (and it looks likely).
EJ - D closed positive. Bias up but potential to fall from resistance, May high.
EURAUD - D closed negative at the identified support level. Clear support at 1.4240 and the US session could not take us lower. 1hr shows the multiple bottoms. Bias down until price action confirms otherwise (and it looks likely).
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr a hanging man at the end of a run up, a bearish candle.Turn looks likely.
GBPAUD - D closed negative at the June/early July highs. 1hr shows the multiple bottoms. We'll need to see the reaction today but the US session did not take us lower yesterday. The past few days has been 1 day down 1 day up. Bias down until price action confirms otherwise (and it looks likely).
EJ - D closed positive. Bias up but potential to fall from resistance, May high.
EURAUD - D closed negative at the identified support level. Clear support at 1.4240 and the US session could not take us lower. 1hr shows the multiple bottoms. Bias down until price action confirms otherwise (and it looks likely).
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr a hanging man at the end of a run up, a bearish candle.Turn looks likely.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
10 Sep 2013
GBPAUD - D closed a shooting star. 4hr lower high lower low flow continues. We are approaching the June/early July highs. Bias down potential to bounce from support.
EJ - D closed positive at the upper resistance level. So far little reaction at the highs compared to last week. Bias up but potential to fall from resistance.
EURAUD - D closed positive and Asian session move down has brought us back to the lows. Trend is down. Support area 1.4300/4250. bias down but support could hold.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr higher high higher low. Bias up.
EJ - D closed positive at the upper resistance level. So far little reaction at the highs compared to last week. Bias up but potential to fall from resistance.
EURAUD - D closed positive and Asian session move down has brought us back to the lows. Trend is down. Support area 1.4300/4250. bias down but support could hold.
AUD - D closed positive. 4hr higher high higher low. Bias up.
Monday, September 9, 2013
9 Sep 2013
GBPAUD - D negative close within the Wed/Thurs range, a lower wick that for now suggests a problem going lower. 4hr lower high lower low flow, RSI crossed up and positive divergence now showing. Can go either way, no bias.
EJ - D negative close with a large lower wick. Essentially we remain sideways and can go either way. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed a hammer bouncing form the 11 June high. Still below the 8lwma, RSI still crossed lower and below 50 level. 4hr did show positive divergence at the Fri low and we have had some move up. The 4hr flow is still showing lower high lower low flow. We can move higher from support levels but bias down until price action confirms.
AUD - D closed positive but within last weeks range and the Aug highs. We can move lower from resistance but bias remains up until price action confirms.
EJ - D negative close with a large lower wick. Essentially we remain sideways and can go either way. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed a hammer bouncing form the 11 June high. Still below the 8lwma, RSI still crossed lower and below 50 level. 4hr did show positive divergence at the Fri low and we have had some move up. The 4hr flow is still showing lower high lower low flow. We can move higher from support levels but bias down until price action confirms.
AUD - D closed positive but within last weeks range and the Aug highs. We can move lower from resistance but bias remains up until price action confirms.
Friday, September 6, 2013
6 Sep 2013
US none farm payroll today.
GBPAUD - Wed's low held, D closed positive but with a large upper wick, below 8lwma and RSI below 50 level. 4hr has crossed up for a scalp buy signal. No bias.
EJ - Also an up and down day that closed negative. 4hr RSI crossed below signal line and 50 level. 1hr showing lower high lower low flow. We had support for a few days 130.50/131.00. Bias down but we could bounce from support.
EURAUD - Yesterday we moved up from support and fell back in trend with the EUR news to close the D an inverted hammer that could not go below Wed's low. This could just be a pause bias down remains but a move up would be no surprise.
AUD - D closed negative at the identified resistance area, no 3 bar reversal, we are above the 8lwma (not unexpected after such a strong move up) and RSI has not crossed yet. Could be pause in uptrend or start of move down, D certainly not clearly saying down. No bias.
GBPAUD - Wed's low held, D closed positive but with a large upper wick, below 8lwma and RSI below 50 level. 4hr has crossed up for a scalp buy signal. No bias.
EJ - Also an up and down day that closed negative. 4hr RSI crossed below signal line and 50 level. 1hr showing lower high lower low flow. We had support for a few days 130.50/131.00. Bias down but we could bounce from support.
EURAUD - Yesterday we moved up from support and fell back in trend with the EUR news to close the D an inverted hammer that could not go below Wed's low. This could just be a pause bias down remains but a move up would be no surprise.
AUD - D closed negative at the identified resistance area, no 3 bar reversal, we are above the 8lwma (not unexpected after such a strong move up) and RSI has not crossed yet. Could be pause in uptrend or start of move down, D certainly not clearly saying down. No bias.
Thursday, September 5, 2013
5 Sep 2013
Interest rate day for UK and EUR.
GBPAUD - D closed negative as expected. Asian session formed a double bottom, we'll need to see if this holds. Bias down, potential move up from support.
EURAUD - D closed negative in the area of the June highs. Bias down, potential to bounce up from support.
EJ - D closed positive. RSI crossed up and above 50 level. Bias up.
AUD - D closed positive. Asian session formed the double top. Bias up, potential to fall from resistance.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
4 Sep 2013
GBPAUD - D closed negative, after the lower high (30 Aug/2 Sep) the close below the previous swing high 1.7200 (26 Aug) has broken that cycle. 4hr lower high lower low. Bias down.
EURAUD - D closed negative and moved further in Asian session to the Aug lows. Bias down potential to bounce up from support.
EJ - D closed a doji no follow through on Mondays positive close, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 4hr lower high after divergence had no follow through lower, above 50 level. No bias.
AUD - D closed positive and moved up further in Asian session. Bias up.
EURAUD - D closed negative and moved further in Asian session to the Aug lows. Bias down potential to bounce up from support.
EJ - D closed a doji no follow through on Mondays positive close, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 4hr lower high after divergence had no follow through lower, above 50 level. No bias.
AUD - D closed positive and moved up further in Asian session. Bias up.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
3 Sept 2013
GBPAUD - D closed negative but the move below the 1.7300 support level was quickly rejected this morning. Bias down potential to bounce from support.
EJ - D closed positive but no follow through after London open or in US session, stopping at the April highs. 4hr on higher low but showing negative divergence. Lots of conflicting information no bias.
EURAUD - D closed negative but like GBPAUD no follow through really after London open or in US session. Bias down potential to bounce up from support.
AUD - D closed positive but large upper wick. Bias up potential to move lower from resistance.
EJ - D closed positive but no follow through after London open or in US session, stopping at the April highs. 4hr on higher low but showing negative divergence. Lots of conflicting information no bias.
EURAUD - D closed negative but like GBPAUD no follow through really after London open or in US session. Bias down potential to bounce up from support.
AUD - D closed positive but large upper wick. Bias up potential to move lower from resistance.
Monday, September 2, 2013
2 Sep 2013
GBPAUD - D closed positive. Opened this morning with gap down and we have had a move up to close the gap. 4hr showing the sideways channel between 1.7300 and 1.7430 for the last few days. No bias.
EJ - D closed negative with a lower wick. The lower end of the 130.50-129.60 channel holding. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed with a lower wick the 1.4760 support area holding. Gapped down this morning, bias down.
AUD - D closed negative on the previous lows. Gapped up this morning and approaching the 0.8975 level where we sold off last week. We'll have to see if down cycle has broken. Bias up.
EJ - D closed negative with a lower wick. The lower end of the 130.50-129.60 channel holding. No bias.
EURAUD - D closed with a lower wick the 1.4760 support area holding. Gapped down this morning, bias down.
AUD - D closed negative on the previous lows. Gapped up this morning and approaching the 0.8975 level where we sold off last week. We'll have to see if down cycle has broken. Bias up.
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