EUR 17 Aug summary

On Friday morning around 6am GMT I said:

1.  In light of recent price action bouncing from support/resistance levels both currencies could sell off.  
2. Bias up for today. Will be looking to take profits at key levels as we normally do (1.5770 GU) either in full or partial and moving stop to last 5 min swing for a possible 85/15 trade. 
3. Selling on solid set ups back into move down. This could be for example engulfing close (taking out prior two candle closes) with negative divergence, intra day lower high.

See point 1 above. The EUR D chart previously identified resistance level, line drawn at 1.2354 (its area could extend to the recent upper wicks 1.2380), the weekly W M3 pivot. As mentioned the support/resistance levels (and pivots) have contained price action recently.


See point 2. Bias up due to the positive close.

See point 3. 4hr had a shooting star yesterday then a negative candle (closes below the last two candle closes), then another shooting star, negative divergence. 1hr had two sell divergences from yesterday and again this morning, shooting star.

Whilst our bias was up we had previously identified the chances of a move down. My view is rarely to take a move based on one candle/one indicator crossing. This move down had several reasons to sell. Proven resistance level/W pivot combination, 4hr multiple candles and divergence, 1hr multiple candles and divergence.