Friday, September 20, 2013

20 Sep 2013 Above/below 50 level RSI and above below 8lwma

Our general trend views:

D chart above 50 level on RSI and above 8lwma chances of uptrend very strong. D neg close candle that cannot break below the 8lwma is a good chance just a hesitation in uptrend. Move below and close above D 8lwma again, the chances of trend continuing are strong.

The opposite holds true for below D 50 level on RSI and below 8lwma.

There are always exceptions and GU might be one of them.

GU - D closed negative after the over sized positive close candle (which is why we are still above the 8lwma), RSI cross lower. On any normal day price action of that kind, 140 pip negative close, would almost certainly be an engulfing candle with the expectation of a move lower. We are still above the 8lwma so we'd usually have the view possible pause in uptrend. 4hr is still on higher high higher low wave, RSI crossed lower. 1hr has made lower high lower lows. We have not had a 3-7 day reversal pattern but the FOMC news push up may have messed things up somewhat. Retaining bias up but a 4hr lower high negative close would change that.

EJ - D closed positive through the May high resistance level, little no upper wick. 4hr looks like its setting up for a lower high. Normally bias would be up for trend continuation. The over sized D candle could be the last blow out at the end of a run and for now we need to see if the break above the 1.3370 area holds. Bias up, potential for break of resistance level to fail.

EURAUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed signal line up with divergence. 4hr higher low yesterday following through higher but for now stalling at the W pivot 1.4337. Its 2 weeks now that we have held at 1.4250, the move below was quickly rejected. Time will tell if this is a major turn, bias up.

AUD - Very similar picture to GU. D close negative after over sized positive close. 4hr looks like closing negative. If EURAUD is to move up AUD needs to fall.  

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