Saturday, June 1, 2013

Trend v counter trend

Some great examples of how we would look to implement our strategy.

D chart is in downtrend below the ema's but we have moved far away from them so there is potential for a bounce up.We have a clear support level identified around 0.9578, the D close with a lower wick reflecting this. The 1hr chart had broken the lower high lower low flow in the move up to the identified resistance level/W pivot 0.9693.

At this point we don't know if this is the start of a move up or a potential rally in down trend. There are several opportunities to sell back into the D trend trading the reaction to the resistance level/W pivot at 0.9693. Where price has either shown for hours it does not want to go higher by either upper wicks, 3 bar reversals or lower highs. Should be clear from 28th, 30th and 31st.

If you have a strong move (in this case) up against the D trend we still want to be confident with the move back down into trend. So we want the 1hr flow to resume down in this sell scenario with either lower highs or stalls at a W pivot or a resistance level (this example has both).  



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