EUR

At some stage there must be a bounce up for EUR, even if only by way of some relief rally of sorts. Any move up until proven otherwise would just be a counter trend scalp and then chance to sell rally in downtrend.

EUR D - on 6 Nov we had a small pos close hammer. Couldn't cause a cross of RSI or a cross of 8 lwma which is a pretty tight ma. So that potential move up didn't inspire too much confidence. From there D bias was down and still is. There is a major SR turning point going back to Jan at 1.2626, a small reaction up from there would only reinforce view of downtrend. The Jan move up lasted for 6 weeks and 800 odd pips. So lets say we hit that level and get a 50 pip bounce, my money will be on 1.2626 failing.

4hr - Whilst we are not exactly rocketing down at the moment the lower high lower low flow is on. We remain below the RSI 50 level. The 48lwma clearly shows the D trend down (D 8 lwma). The London Close bounce was not that high and the 8 Nov lows acting as resistance.

Bias down .