can you please explain your methodology in detail with examples and how you take trades, as the issue im getting is that 1 or 2 loss/bad trades wipes all my profits everytime ..... i want to know how you identify the trend on daily and then take trades on 15m TF..
and when you dont see any trend on Daily TF then how do you take trades next day? im getting frustrated with few losses tht wipe my profit..... its happening time n again!!
in addition what SL and TP do you set?
looking forward to your assistance
I trade MTF analysis with entries from 5 min. Approx 2 months ago switched to 15 min entry with focus buying above 15 min 200 ema, selling below. Good results became borderline unbelievable. An old dog can learn some new tricks.
I start with an analysis of D chart for trend. Looking for:
Good candles should follow through the next day e.g. an engulfing close (don't even worry about the correct definitions and perfection did you close above or below the previous 2 candle closes)
Did the candle break the immediate range
Did the D itself have a HL or LH close back into trend, i.e. did the D flow continue
Did we have an evening/morning star pattern (yes ok I know thats also a close below/above the 2 previous closes)
Are we above/below the RSI 50 level
Are we above/below the tight D ma
Once some/most/all of these things happen the following day becomes more focused, the ability to be patient is easier as you are almost assured (well as much as you can possibly be in this game) that things have a great chance to play out in line with 15 min trend entry.
I literally run through my list as above every morning to look at prev days close for 3 pairs eur, gu, ej and try and get some clarity as to what may happen for the coming days trade. Yes sometimes pairs go into a sideways funk on D but generally 70% of time 1 day follows the next. Its not rocket science or anything weird, just common sense.
From D chart analysis I'll do similar on 4hr and 1hr looking to identify the flow of the market i.e. higher high higher lows, or lower highs lower lows.
See EJ D chart attached for some analysis:
Left arrow up. We are above 50 RSI, RSI above its ma, we have a hammer (wick rejects move lower), D ma sloping up nicely. Everything suggesting D trend up. Focus should be buying the next day as the only possible worry could be the failure of the hammer to really trade higher than the previous day.
Left arrow down. D rsi crossed below its ma. 2 upper wicks, taken 3 days to turn (turns often take 3-7 days to play out), an engulfing neg close (close below the 2 prior candle closes). I trust an engulfing close (when price on any time frame can break its immediate range thats normally a good sign), I trust D rsi cross of its ma. OK this sell signal could be the start of a move down or it could be a pause in uptrend, that I don't know. Whats happening on 1hr and then entry from 15 min should keep me out of too much trouble. What follows is 5 days of sell focus from 15 min.
Arrow up 2nd from left. Taken 4 days to bottom out and for RSI to cross up, we are also trading above our ma. The candle has an upper wick so its not a clear signal. Again could go up or be small rally in downtrend. Analysis of 1hr flow and 15 min entry again should give final guide. Even if you missed a day and waited for 2 Oct positive close you'd then have 4 days of buy focus. Or look at other pairs to see the have given a clearer signal.
Arrow down 2nd from left. Engulfing close, RSI cross focus on sells the next day.
Arrow up 2nd from right. An engulfing close, morning star pattern from an identified support level. Bias on buys for next 5 days.
Arrow down right. A D lower high, engulfing negative close, RSI touch trade below 50 level. Focus sell the next few days.
Arrow up right. Morning star pattern, from support area, engulfing positive close, RSI cross on 50 level. Buy focus from then on.
Like I said once I have my D view then its a question of waiting for the trades to fall into place. I'll still look at 1hr flow but its 15 min entries as per this thread.
Take profits at the moment we are exiting half at first typical area around 30/40 pips that could cause a problem (RN, SR level, W pivot) and leaving balance to try to get to 2nd key level closer to 5 day ADR (again RN, SR level, W pivot).
If we don't see anything on any of the 3 pairs we have no problem with not trading for the day. At 2% risk a 60 pip day is a 6% return thats good enough for us. Many traders I have seen say they trade less frequently as they get older, that applies to us as well as neck/back issues that hinder chart time.
If you are inconsistent take a critical look at your winning and losing trades. What do the losing trades have in common? I was having many losing trades from 5 min on 3rd/4th move in London morning session. Guess what I cut that trade out. Now I couldn't care what that trade does as I know statistically its a high risk venture. I cut out 5 min higher low/lower high trades that were counter the London morning direction that were set up from weak 1hr candles pre/early US session. Again now I don't care what those trades do, for me they are a high risk bet (a solid engulfing post US news candle a different story). If we are not in already from Lon open we are waiting out pre/early US session CT moves and looking for London's direction to resume.
A through analysis of your losing trades can work wonders. Could be as easy as you are trying too many CT trades (London close has a proven CT strategy but thats a different issue i.e. its proven).
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