Recap 29 Nov Method expanded multi time frame analysis 2

These were my comments from 29 Nov.

EUR - Y closed a strong hammer so we should move up today. 4hr has signaled higher. Only time will tell if a move up will be the last try from the bulls and if we are getting close to a 4-7 day topping out process. Should we get to 1.30 potential for an 85/15 trade.

Please see popular posts Method expanded multi time frame analysis.

We look to follow the daily candles as much as possible. Trying to keep things as simple as possible we:

1) try and identify support and resistance levels
2) look for positive/negative closes to follow through the next day (as we believe this will hold true approx 70% of the time)
3) watch for divergence
4) Look for D chart higher lows/lower highs, double tops/bottoms, engulfing candles, hammers/shooting stars, morning/evening star patterns
5) rsi crossing its moving average or crossing the 50 line

If we are confident that a confluence of the above exists then the next day we will look to trade in 1 direction only. This keeps us out of some head fake moves typically around London open and the US open (weak counter trend 1hr candles in and around US open just as big a fake move as LO).

Now if we apply the above simple concepts to 29 Nov's EUR set up.

1) Resistance level identified, the Feb/Apr lows in and around 1.30.
2) 28 Nov EUR closed a hammer, lower wick suggests failure to go lower. Previous analysis to that suggested D had not yet even closed with a sell signal. RSI had never crossed lower and price had not closed below our 8 lwma. This put together suggests higher on 29th.
3) Not applicable.

4) D higher low hammer.
5) RSI still above its ma and 50 level.


So now we have 2 major pieces of information. First we are looking to buy from 15 min, 2b or higher low/double bottom hopefully with engulfing close (close above 2 previous closes) at the extreme of price range (not the 3rd or 4th higher low in move), on 29th around 1.2950. Second bit of information, we are confident that 1.30 is a key target (so 85/15 has potential).

Some very basic D analysis can increase your odds.